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Monday 23 April 2012

Some Spring Paddock Notes

The forecast for the week was rain but racegoers were pretty lucky and apart from the odd shower it remained dry. The Craven was a bit windy and many of the horses had light blankets which made paddock viewing difficult. The notes are therefore not as detailed and extensive as I would have liked.

Newmarket Wed 18th April 2012
In the Alex Scott Maiden many had blankets removed late. The winner Cogito was the pick.
Many of Charles Hills entries during the week needed the run and Balty Boys was surprisingly unfit given the prize money on offer. He has trained on. Luca Cumani's Out Do was the most backward of the field and has plenty of potential. He can go the handicap route and is one to follow.
I bet Bannock who looked in tremendous nick but he could not quite concede the winner 10lbs. Having proved he gets 7f his options are widened.
I followed that up with a punt on Starscope in the Nell Gwyn. The only horse in the prelims she was a blatant not off and would have won had Buick put her in the race. She will do better over a longer trip.
Stipulate has done really well and took the Fielden despite being the most backward. He should thrive. Producer was noted for the Horris Hill last October and he has done well and in need of the run.
Shantaram was well touted for the 10f maiden and was considered by some as the Banker of the week. Given a woeful ride by Buick and ceding a 3L start he looks a contender and will be better on a flat track. Model Pupil was noticeably backward and will improve a deal. His breeding indicates a step up in trip.

Newmarket Thurs 19th April 2012.
Tassel was made a hot favourite for the 2yo fillies maiden. Although very fit she is only compact.
The Wood Ditton was probably better than average. I did not get a proper look at the winner but the next 6 home should all win and I would add Tenure to the mix.
In The Tattersalls Million, Bin Suroor's Handsome Man came into the race with a mark of just 80. Beaten 32 lengths won't add to that and he can be noted in a handicap.
Trumpet Major scooted home in the Craven to earn a decent figure. A handy sort he looked very fit but did not satisfy every purist and one senior judge actually laid him for a place.
I have seen Twice Over look a lot better and he was worth opposing.

Newbury Friday 20th April 2012.
The ground was very heavy and the going stick reading of 4.6 was one of the lowest I can remember. The form should be treated with a large degree of caution.
The 2yo event was inconclusive and a few will sharpen up for the run. Quite often it is better to form an opinion on the second run once the puppy fat has come off and you can see what is left underneath.
The Dubai Duty Free handicap for 3yo's over 7f is usually a good contest with winners emerging. The front two in the market were like chalk and cheese. The winner Gregorian is a lengthy cadillac of a colt who looked particularly fit and well while the hot favourite Aljamaaheer is a stocky close coupled power block of a colt who also was really fit and well. Both are nice. The first couple of furlongs were run at a snail's pace and while the winner won on merit, the overall form is highly suspect. Usain Colt and Red Quartet were others to take the eye.
The Bridget Maiden was won by a wide margin winner but my choice Manaar did not go a yard.
The Whitley Stud Maiden produced the Oaks winner Dancing Rain last year and the second division looked the stronger. Inchina was mentioned last fall in my blog and having done well she went of the 2/1 favourite. She seemed to be going clear but then got stuck in the mud. She remains one to follow along with the Cumani trained Require.
I did not have Ektihaam much behind Most Improved when I saw him before the Dewhurst. Drifting from 3/1 to 10/1 that day something was clearly not right and he never figured in the race. He was turned out looking fit and well and confirmed paddock synopsis with a decent win over Wrotham Heath. The latter was in fine nick but ran a bit free early on which did not help in the ground.

Saturday 21st April 2012
Frankel's half brother - Noble Mission looked on good terms and won well. Captain Cat, Dream Tune, Ibtihaj and Seventh Sign should come on for the run.
Arctic Cosmos looks a Group One contender this term but stopped to nothing in the race. Hopefully nothing was amiss.
All the paddock purists were on Moonstone Magic to a man and she confirmed confidence in style in the Fred Darling. Despite stable misgivings about the going the Lowther winner Best Terms was allowed to run. She may not have grown much during the Winter but has done really well and she should go on from here.
Bronterre carried Hannon confidence for the Greenham but failed to pick up. I thought he looked long backed and weak before the Dewhurst but he has strengthened a deal and will have a fine summer.
Top Offer was allowed to parade before the Greenham. I did not see him last term but he is a fine sort. He seemed tight enough on his quarters but could still lose a few pounds around the belly. There will be few better looking horses before the 2,000.
Fury walked short in his off rear and tends to put that hind out a bit. Maybe something was hurting last season to cause his fall off in form. It did not seem to hinder him in the Spring Cup.
Henry Cecil's Touch Gold was the preferred for the Bathwick Maiden and must surely get a decent handicap mark. Rule Book was noticeably backward and did well to finish fifth.
Forest Row was another inflicted with the cursed full blanket but I was able to view when without and he has done really well since last year and should have a successful campaign. I was tipped up Border Legend in the same race but he was in need of the run. A classy sort with a deal of scope he looks Ascot material. The second Lucanin was very green indeed before and during the heat. He will come on for the experience.

Monday 9 April 2012

To Hedge Or Not To Hedge?

Readers of my website and blog will know I have been consistently with Most Improved and Discourse through the Winter. With MI now down to around 9/2 on Betfair, those who have the 40 and 33s and wish to hedge should do so now. A victory in the Craven has already been factored into the price.
It is a fact that the big bookmakers are known to have their card marked by certain stables – Ladbrokes are best for Coolmore for example. For Godolphin, Coral have always been well informed and it is interesting that they are now ducking Discourse and are lowest @ 6/1. It is still 11bf for those who have yet to take a single.