Newmarket November 2013

Friday 1^st November:    The closing of the M25 did nothing to help my journey and I missed the first two maidens. The going was very soft. The consensus of the cognoscenti was that Authenticity and Born To Reign were worth noting in the first. In the second, Pantolini, Ragged Robin, Stetchworth and Warbrook could take a race.

Before the Listed Bosra Sham Stakes, despite very mild weather they all wore the poxy full/light blanket and a full viewing was cursory. There was little to report on what I saw with the inform Cape Factor taking the spoils.

In the 6f Conditions heat the 2yo’s were once again favoured by the weights. The 3yo filly Mar Mar looked in good nick but could not concede the advantage.

The Warrens of Warwick Fillies Handicap was a strong heat and won well by the Sakhee filly Tweed. The form of the race might be useful.

Saturday 2^nd November:         The Fillies Maiden known historically as the Balaton Lodge Stakes, again divided this time but failed to highlight anything special at this stage. Angelic Air stayed on despite the ground and will improve on better going. Excellent View was plenty fit but pulled in the race and blew hard afterwards.   

In the second division Eastern Belle was fancied and made favourite but she too blew hard after.

If they made the Zetland Stakes a Listed event then they might get runners. Why they downgraded the race is a mystery. Hartnell had a facile win. He looks the part and will make a 3yo.

Majeyda is a good sort and followed up her second in the May Hill with a fine win here. She should train on and improve again. Surcingle drifted badly in the betting and the BHB really should investigate exactly who is laying these horses on the Exchanges and report back to the Betting Public. Without the Exchanges we would know what Bookmaker was doing the Laying on the racecourse. Despite moving well to post Surcingle was never going. She has a deal of scope and well bred could be a real contender next term. Hopefully nothing was amiss. With the racing delayed I drew stumps.

Newbury Saturday 26^th October 2013

The ground was very heavy and the times confirmed it was some of the worst of the season.

The maiden fillies race has produced Secret Gesture and Shirocco Star in the last couple of years. Cinnilla went off the 4/1 favorite but never showed. She is stoutly bred and should shine next term.

Lady Thyne waltzed away with the second division and a tall workmanlike sort, she should train on. Acclio was not persevered with when she could not win. She only gets a mark of 73 and this lengthy type is one to note in a Nursery.

Piping Rock had cruised in when returning from a lay off at Salisbury and showed the benefit of that run by winning in style here. He has a good action and should not be written off on faster going next spring. Although not as big as the favorite – Galiway, he has a deal of quality and it will be fascinating to report on his progress next April. Galiway has plenty of scope and will improve for this run. He seems a contender and has the breeding to back up his physique. He is a boisterous sort rather than a fractious type and his messing around beforehand is nothing to worry about.

Nicholls Canyon has progressed during the year and was in good nick. The filly Cocktail Queen has done particularly well and was in great shape for her first run in five months. Her dam – Premier Prize raced as a 5 year old and was Pattern class. I expect Cocktail Queen to stay in training and do well.

The Radley Stakes was a modest affair with the 85 rated Aqlaam Vision getting up close home. Ligeia pulled to post and in the race and was never going to get home over seven furlongs, especially on this ground. She could be worth noting dropped back in trip.

Newmarket Future Champions Day 12th October

Jockeys reported the ground to be on the soft side of good, though the times were barely slower than the previous week when the ground was reported fast. The wind was minimal and should not have affected the times of the races. Unusual.

In the Challenge Stakes Trumpet Major looked in great nick. He has had a wind op and had been off for 91 days and also had a 4lb penalty.

Great White Eagle looked the part for the Middle Park but never fired. He is a good mover and should be given a chance to atone. The winner Astaire had done well as had the third – Hot Streak who was well in his coat despite being fresh in the paddock. A couple had gone in their coats including Sudirman and Supplicant.

War Command was the clear choice in a poor renewal for the Dewhurst. He has excellent conformation but might still need a motor to go with it. At the moment I would hold fire for the Guineas and much will depend on the progress he makes in the next 6 months. A lot can happen in that time and there is no point trying to crystal ball the game. I had expected Cable Bay to come on for his Somerville Stakes showing at HQ 16 days before, but he was in a stew and had run up light. He belied his state with a solid run. Stormardal had done well but blew his handicap mark. Outstrip had gone in his coat and looked poor.

Tiger Cliff looked supreme for the Ces but was given a hapless ride by Queally who was in front miles too soon. He should step up to pattern class no problem next term.

I do not know what happened to Lightning Strike but she stayed on having appeared to be tailing off at one stage. Strange! Valonia had a thick winter coat on the way and had been trace clipped and was dull. Forget this run. Al Thakira is a handy well made sort and looked well. She endorsed Dubawi’s fine season as a stallion.

I mentioned in my last Blog that Oklahoma City seemed likely to prove best short of a mile and he was trounced in the last furlong of the 8f Autumn Stakes. Kingston Hill was very backward at Newbury despite winning and had come on a ton for the run. God Willing was still not fully fit last time and he was in good nick for a respectable effort. Truth or Dare was preferred of the Hannon pair and Mount Logan looked tucked up and pulled to post.

Chapter Seven is still going the right way and can improve again.

Newmarket 5^th October 2013

Good weather and fast ground with a minimal tail wind.

In the £300k Tattersalls Fillies there was not much to choose between Wedding Ring, Night Song and Zawiyah. Experience held the call with the former taking the spoils. Night Song was never in the hunt. Zawiyah is sprint bred and could be one to note in fillies events next year. In July, I marked Manderley down for a nursery and she blew a handicap mark of 76 in finishing second. Mind you, she did cop £66k in place money which looks the better of the bargain. She was going in her coat but was otherwise fine.

Oklahoma City took the £500k colt’s version and he was well suited by the drop back in trip, having contested the one mile Beresford Stakes just 6 days before. He is a strong stocky sort and more of a sprinter than a miler. Extremity had done well but failed to show. Currently 82 he should not go up much. Postponed impressed me at the July Meeting and he looked much more a racehorse with the puppy fat off. He now looks more like his sire Dubawi and should make a nice 3yo. Again, he blew a mark of 85 but did cop £110k in the process

The horses for the 8f maiden contained plenty of backward types. Three that will come on hugely for the run include the Galileo colt– Battersea trained by Roger Varian; he is a half brother to Gitano Hernando who won the big Group One at Kranji Singapore. Battersea looks sure to figure in middle distance events next term. Dance of Heroes – trained by Jeremy Noseda is a Danehill Dancer out of Helena Moloney who was placed in a 11f Listed race for John Oxx. Middle distances beckon for the youth. Protected, trained by Richard Hannon was possibly the most backward of the lot and is a good sort.

Newmarket Autumn Notes

Three days of superb weather and perfect fast racing ground, together with excellent cards ensured British Racing at its best. There seemed to be no discernible bias in the draw with the wind minimal.

Thursday:       

Plenty of future staying types in the 8f maiden. Kings Land and Rainbow Rock were noticeably backward and should come on the most for the run.

Astonishing absolutely floated to post and came back in a similarly impressive fashion. A joy to watch. None of the paddock wallahs liked Phiz but I think she might have a motor. She drifted like a barge in the betting market and ran accordingly. She could prefer more give.

There was money for Championship in the Tattersall Stakes but he needed the run after his lay off.

Sabor A Triunfo failed to get home over 2 miles and the filly had Group One form on the All Weather in Chile. She is with Ed Dunlop who has a superb track record with fillies and mares.

Ladyship ran a career best and is on top of her game. She could be in line for more Black Type.

Friday:

Soft Falling Rain impressed at Newbury and was sharper for the run. He is worth a crack at the Queen Elizabeth.

Rizeena was very much on her toes and did not convince as before. Chriselliam had done well.

Baarez looks a three year old in the making and being by Kentucky Derby second - Hard Spun - will always be worth noting on the All Weather. If he were mine I would point him at the Kentucky Derby. Gothic is a big lengthy sort typically favoured by Highclere. Very much having a kind introduction, he pleased connections no end. Ganges was the most backward and ran well despite. He will improve accordingly.

Morpheus was heavily backed but needed the race.

Saturday:

Berkshire has grown a deal and seemed more like a 4yo never mind a 3yo. He ran green and was ‘climbing’ in the race. He has a ‘wall eye’ and does not look the full shilling. Temperament will always be a factor and I remain to be convinced.

Vorda is a handy well made sort who should handle the tight Breeders Cup track no problem. I would need to see her next Spring before I commit for the Guineas.

Joyeuse looked to be going the right way at Salisbury but pulled here and failed to show. Disappointing.

I put up Sky Lantern for the 1,000 Guineas in the Spring and she has been a joy to follow. She looked great despite going a bit in her coat. Having run so well at Ascot at the Royal Meeting, she must surely go for the Champion Stakes.

The question of horses going in their coat is one open to debate. The inference is that once horses start to get their winter coat in the autumn they must inevitably start to lose their form. Briefly in my view, if they look well I still want to be with them even if they are getting their new coat. If they look dull then no.

Elusive Kate looked great but disappointed again. She has been very much underrated, having won a Group One at 2, 3 and 4 years of age. Apart from Bosra Sham I cannot think of any other fillies to have done so in recent times. One for the Stats Boys. If you can think of any others, please let me know.

Racing Value An Incredible 51% ROI This Season

Last week I reported how a horse had let down Racing Value for a huge 275/1 treble despite looking all over the winner.

So what happens is the same horse – Hi Filwah - runs a few days later – last Friday as it happens.

My mate rings me up. “I see that dog of yours is running today”

“ Dog?? Its Evens with Corals. Care for an Even Monkey? I enquire”

“ You can have a Grand if you like”. “No Says I. I don’t want your better half giving me grief when it wins (she's a lovely girl, far too good for him and I would hate to upset her)”

Anyway, Hi Filwah is never out of second gear to win in a canter and rub salt into the wounds. That 275 Points would have Changed Lives I assure you.

Even worse, as Racing Value Clients will testify, all week we keep get getting chinned - more than going 10 Rounds with Mike Tyson.

On Tuesday James Doyle comes off the rail and goes the scenic route round West Sussex before dropping his hands and costing us the Place Single and Treble on Waterclock and 18 Points.

Thanks James, Thanks a Lot !!! Want a job with Prince Khaled?

Then, even more horses join the the Next Time Up Club – Horses I tip that get beat and then win next time up. I tipped up Dragon City at 25/1 EW and see it finish tailed off last. It goes in last week 7/2>9/4. I am too embarrassed to put it up again.

Furthermore, one of the few times we have gone 10 Points Win this season was on La Collina to win a 4 runner race at 5/1 at Naas. I saw the filly at Newmarket before the Sun Chariot and knew she was still capable. She then ran a great race over 7 furlongs in the Gladness Stakes on her first run back in the Spring. She could not get past a 33/1 shot when we punt her that day at Naas where nothing has won since.

On Saturday she takes the Group One Matron Stakes at 33/1 beating the best Fillies in training. I am stunned.

All week we are backing Richard Hannon horses and watch them run below par. I ring my mate in the yard only for him to tell me that that the vaccinations they had the previous week have knocked the youngsters sideways.

We then lump on Figure of Speech at Kempton on the Saturday – only to see the Hannon trained Brown Sugar turn in a career best and beat my darling a short head at 6/1 !! It costs Racing Value Clients 42 Points.

Never mind, my mate in Newmarket who is a Jockey's Agent confirms that a horse I have been keeping an eye on will go in at Wolver in the evening. Glanely cops for Racing Value Clients at 8/1>5/1. Aye Aye !!

Any way, you can't keep a Good Team down and we Bomb Bet365 (and others) with Quiz Mistress at 10/1 on Tuesday to cop 60 Points and keep Racing Value an unbelievable 51% in Profit this Flat Season. That despite a myriad of knock backs.

Alex Bird, the great Professional Punter was happy with 5% Profit on Turnover.

We are doing Ten Times that at Racing Value !!!!

Don't just Watch our Results. Join Us !!!!

My Racing Value Service is well ahead for the 2013 Turf Season and showing superb profits with losing runs the smallest of any service available.

However profits would have been incredible if some of the horses had gone in on the day we tipped them. Many got beat and then won next time up often in tougher races or at much shorter odds making tipping them uneconomic.

Just this week Glenard 11/1 Gabriels Lad 6/1 Hoku and Harbinger Lass. Manalapan is another to win recently at the Curragh at 7/1. Having lost twice on the horse it travels sweetly to score. Bantam 5/1 Jwala 16/1 Sartorialist 20/1 Silver Lime 7/1 Zain Zone 10/1>4/1 Constantine 3/1 Dibayani 7/2 Evangeliste A Star is Born Morpheus Saucy Minx Estifzaaz Regal Silk etc etc etc are just some examples this term.

Not to mention our Ante Post plunge on Toronado for the 2,000 Guineas!!

It has been driving me mad but if nothing else it proves that I can come up with consistently live horses.