Final Paddock Notes

This is the last Paddock Blog I will do. I hope it has have been of interest and some help to you. Perhaps it has highlighted that the Paddock can be used as much for future winners as for winners on the day.

York Thurs 17^th May 2012

Sea of Heartbreak had a good year in 2011 and looks to have progressed again. She will be suited by a step back up to 12 furlongs. I'm a Dreamer continues to do well.

Ektihaam held the call for the Dante and he gave his best showing to date to finish second. Bonfire has a reputation at home for bad behaviour and drifted on course as a result. He was just bested on looks being a lighter made sort but still athletic and nicely put together. Fencing was hard trained and this was his Derby but seemed to lack stamina. He was up there in terms of presence and should be noted when reverting in distance. Dream Tune had come on since Newbury and will do better dropped in grade.

I retired to the bar.

Newbury Friday 18^th May 2012

The warnings I sounded for Mysterial at HQ were again in abeyance and he was poor to post. I laid him in turn.

Shirocco Star was well touted and she had done well since last autumn. Again inclined to sweat up and a bit edgy, she ran a fine trial for Epsom. Starscope had run up a bit light since the Guineas and was in a cow of a mood. Planting herself at the furlong pole and mareish at the start she could do with a break to freshen up her attitude. The Queen's Momentary was a match on looks and conformation for Starscope and there was no fluke about this. She is a live contender for the Ribblesdale being by Nayef out of Fleeting Memory.

Lady Phil did well to win the juvenile conditions event giving 6lb to the favourite. She has a pair of quarters on her.

Commitment kicked out and caught the rail in the paddock but was allowed to run despite appearing lame when trotting up and down. He has made up into a fair middle distance 3yo and should progress in handicaps. Waterclock is progressive but needed the run.

I was distraught to see Burwaaz beaten having marked him after Kempton as a potential top sprinter. Ed Dunlop mentioned in the Weekender that he had injured his back coming out of the stalls and I will be interested in him next time, hopefully at a big price – perhaps at Ascot.

Swiss Spirit was produced in A1 condition. I was thinking this was a nearly horse but David Elsworth loves to win at Newbury and although he scrambled home he might go on again from here. Inetrobil was second in the Albany Stakes last year and has done well from her juvenile days.

Newbury Saturday 18^th May 2012

Bishop Roko is a gelding and still to fully get his summer coat. He bolted up and can go straight into handicaps and could thrive again. Viewpoint did not get home and will be one for handicaps. Sun Central is a good sort who will improve for the run and ran green.

Hawaafez is such a robust barrel of a horse that I found it hard to remind myself that she is a filly. She has not stopped improving. Ibicenco was noticeably backward and had to be laid despite being favourite.

Palace Moon and Pabusar were best for the sprint and the second being only a 4yo should do best.

The London Gold Cup is always a strong heat and the pick – Expense Claim won well.

Border Legend was a disappointment and still some way from full fitness he ran green and hung left. A watching brief for the time being.

Cathedral is a good sort and was not wound up. Keep tabs. Bute Hall is a good sort and easily the most backward in the race must improve a deal.

One horse I forgot to mention from the Craven Stakes was Beaufort Twelve. I was about to blow my trumpet after his Goodwood win but was aghast to see I had forgotten to write him up. He was the most backward at HQ having had cracked heels like many horses this spring. He will improve again. Apologies for the omission.

Finally the mighty Frankel.

Having missed fast work for a couple of weeks due his overreach injury I would have been happy for him to win by a comfortable couple of lengths but he gave a career best and fairly blew away his opponents. I mentioned in my October blog that hopefully he had done all the growing he was going to do and thankfully that is the case. After the race the usual clichés were invariably trotted out i.e. “he has not grown but he has strengthened” or “he has strengthened in all the right places.” I bet if the saddle numbers with Bullet Train had been swapped that very few would have known the difference. Having said that he has to my eye, grown stronger in key muscle sets but I am not going to tell you what those are - in a free blog.

That sets the scene for some scintillating performances this summer, hopefully over a longer trip. Until he proves himself over 10 and perhaps 12 furlongs Frankel can only be said to be the best miler in the world – not the best horse in the world.

Dubawi Gold and Excelebration were in fine nick and gave their runnings. Windsor Palace is not finished with yet and was in superb shape. He will appreciate a return to 10 furlongs.

Pre Derby Synopsis

Camelot looks a class act on looks and should take the Derby tomorrow but at this stage he is not that far ahead of his opponents on the figures to warrant such a short price. He beat a modest field for the Racing Post and did not put a lot of distance between him and the placed runners. He looked plenty fit enough before the 2,000 Guineas and still only won by a head with several of the contenders running below par on the worst ground for the Guineas in a generation. His breeding should get him the trip.

One colt in the field who knocked me over last year was Astrology. Entered in the Autumn Stakes run at HQ for the first time having been transferred from Ascot, he was Group One material beforehand but finished only third despite heavy support in the markets. I was keen to see how he came out of it this year and was delighted to see him win the Dee Stakes in facile fashion. There was not enough opposition to warrant going overboard but he went clear to confirm that he has indeed trained on. He could well be the pick tomorrow in the prelims and at 10/1 he is massive value. His breeding is superb being by Galileo out of the Group One Prix St Alary winner – Ask For The Moon. He can always be backed Each way or Win only and save with a csf on Camelot. He could not have a better pilot than Ryan Moore and I am looking forward with relish to a great contest.

I was at York to see Bonfire. Reports of his lousy attitude at home swept the Knavesmire and that was the reason for the drift in the betting. On looks he is not a big sort but well put together and very athletic. The more you look at him the more he grows on you. Main Sequence won well at Lingfield to beat the progressive Shantaram and they pulled clear. He could be in the mix but does not appeal as a winner.

Newmarket Guineas Meeting Paddock Notes

The wet weather and heavy ground played havoc with the results and the form should not be taken literally. The colder weather meant many trainers used full string blankets which made paddock study a nightmare. The thicker half blanket is a better option as it keeps the vital organs warmer.

How Michael Prosser could call the going 'Good To Soft' is a joke. It was Heavy – full stop and the times confirm this. Without a tail wind they would have been even slower.

Saturday:

Dick Doughtywylie trained by John Gosden, continues to make excellent progress and there is a good handicap in this one, possibly at the Royal Ascot meeting. The same trainer's Masked Marvel continues to thrive and should be tabbed next time up. Fiorente and the winner Al Kazeem have done well.

The 2,000 Guineas winner Camelot is all class and won in spite of the conditions. He is difficult to fault on any point and is a superb specimen. Hopefully he will continue to go the right way. He was turned out looking fit and well and will now contest the Derby. I see no reason why he should not continue to give a good account for the rest of the year.

Abtaal is an imposing sort and turned out in fine condition once the wraps came off. He should have finished near to the French trained second. On looks he should do well on the French courses. Caspar Netscher has developed since the Greenham and will do well dropping back in trip. Bronterre looked at least as well as he had before the Greenham but disappointed. It might be the ground or his temperament. A pair of blinkers might help. Power has done well but suffered cracked heels in his prep. Elsewhere there were no real negatives.

Mayson looked a big morning price of 5/1 bearing in mind his Abernant win but went to post early.

Red Quartet is at the right end of the handicap and confirmed his Newbury promise.

Stencive looks a progressive sort and is one to note. The going did not help.

Archbishop was on great terms and can have a good season.

Sunday:

Ithoughtitwasover impressed and I have a feeling about this one. Royal Ascot must surely be on the agenda. Al Zarooni's pair – Anatolian and Sandusky should make their mark after this.

Izzi Top has made good progress since last term and Captivator was the one for the forecast. They should both go one from this. Timepiece has a wall eye – always the sign of a screw and temperament might be a negative factor this term.

What can you say about the Guineas? Homecoming Queen won her trial in good fashion and is a three parts sister to Dylan Thomas. It would not have surprised me had she framed but to win by 9 lengths beggars belief. Apart from Nayarra she was probably the smallest filly in the race.

Moonstone Magic had done really well since Newbury and was a true disappointment. She is now a fine filly and hopefully she will fufill her potential. I liked Diala and Mashoora but the Godolphin pair failed to shine. Maybe has not grown much but is a real quality sort. My Nell Gwyn fancy – the very likeable Starscope tried this time and finished second.

There was money for the 2yo Mysterial and he is a good sort but showed a woeful action to post and in the race. I would like to see him move to post on better ground.

Kailani is a ringer for her dam – the Oaks winner Kazzia and she has clearly inherited all of her ability. She won't be my selection for the race but she heads to the the Epsom Oaks with a wet sail.

Some Spring Paddock Notes

The forecast for the week was rain but racegoers were pretty lucky and apart from the odd shower it remained dry. The Craven was a bit windy and many of the horses had light blankets which made paddock viewing difficult. The notes are therefore not as detailed and extensive as I would have liked.

Newmarket Wed 18^th April 2012

In the Alex Scott Maiden many had blankets removed late. The winner Cogito was the pick.

Many of Charles Hills entries during the week needed the run and Balty Boys was surprisingly unfit given the prize money on offer. He has trained on. Luca Cumani's Out Do was the most backward of the field and has plenty of potential. He can go the handicap route and is one to follow.

I bet Bannock who looked in tremendous nick but he could not quite concede the winner 10lbs. Having proved he gets 7f his options are widened.

I followed that up with a punt on Starscope in the Nell Gwyn. The only horse in the prelims she was a blatant not off and would have won had Buick put her in the race. She will do better over a longer trip.

Stipulate has done really well and took the Fielden despite being the most backward. He should thrive. Producer was noted for the Horris Hill last October and he has done well and in need of the run.

Shantaram was well touted for the 10f maiden and was considered by some as the Banker of the week. Given a woeful ride by Buick and ceding a 3L start he looks a contender and will be better on a flat track. Model Pupil was noticeably backward and will improve a deal. His breeding indicates a step up in trip.

Newmarket Thurs 19^th April 2012.

Tassel was made a hot favourite for the 2yo fillies maiden. Although very fit she is only compact.

The Wood Ditton was probably better than average. I did not get a proper look at the winner but the next 6 home should all win and I would add Tenure to the mix.

In The Tattersalls Million, Bin Suroor's Handsome Man came into the race with a mark of just 80. Beaten 32 lengths won't add to that and he can be noted in a handicap.

Trumpet Major scooted home in the Craven to earn a decent figure. A handy sort he looked very fit but did not satisfy every purist and one senior judge actually laid him for a place.

I have seen Twice Over look a lot better and he was worth opposing.

Newbury Friday 20^th April 2012.

The ground was very heavy and the going stick reading of 4.6 was one of the lowest I can remember. The form should be treated with a large degree of caution.

The 2yo event was inconclusive and a few will sharpen up for the run. Quite often it is better to form an opinion on the second run once the puppy fat has come off and you can see what is left underneath.

The Dubai Duty Free handicap for 3yo's over 7f is usually a good contest with winners emerging. The front two in the market were like chalk and cheese. The winner Gregorian is a lengthy cadillac of a colt who looked particularly fit and well while the hot favourite Aljamaaheer is a stocky close coupled power block of a colt who also was really fit and well. Both are nice. The first couple of furlongs were run at a snail's pace and while the winner won on merit, the overall form is highly suspect. Usain Colt and Red Quartet were others to take the eye.

The Bridget Maiden was won by a wide margin winner but my choice Manaar did not go a yard.

The Whitley Stud Maiden produced the Oaks winner Dancing Rain last year and the second division looked the stronger. Inchina was mentioned last fall in my blog and having done well she went of the 2/1 favourite. She seemed to be going clear but then got stuck in the mud. She remains one to follow along with the Cumani trained Require.

I did not have Ektihaam much behind Most Improved when I saw him before the Dewhurst. Drifting from 3/1 to 10/1 that day something was clearly not right and he never figured in the race. He was turned out looking fit and well and confirmed paddock synopsis with a decent win over Wrotham Heath. The latter was in fine nick but ran a bit free early on which did not help in the ground.

Saturday 21^st April 2012

Frankel's half brother - Noble Mission looked on good terms and won well. Captain Cat, Dream Tune, Ibtihaj and Seventh Sign should come on for the run.

Arctic Cosmos looks a Group One contender this term but stopped to nothing in the race. Hopefully nothing was amiss.

All the paddock purists were on Moonstone Magic to a man and she confirmed confidence in style in the Fred Darling. Despite stable misgivings about the going the Lowther winner Best Terms was allowed to run. She may not have grown much during the Winter but has done really well and she should go on from here.

Bronterre carried Hannon confidence for the Greenham but failed to pick up. I thought he looked long backed and weak before the Dewhurst but he has strengthened a deal and will have a fine summer.

Top Offer was allowed to parade before the Greenham. I did not see him last term but he is a fine sort. He seemed tight enough on his quarters but could still lose a few pounds around the belly. There will be few better looking horses before the 2,000.

Fury walked short in his off rear and tends to put that hind out a bit. Maybe something was hurting last season to cause his fall off in form. It did not seem to hinder him in the Spring Cup.

Henry Cecil's Touch Gold was the preferred for the Bathwick Maiden and must surely get a decent handicap mark. Rule Book was noticeably backward and did well to finish fifth.

Forest Row was another inflicted with the cursed full blanket but I was able to view when without and he has done really well since last year and should have a successful campaign. I was tipped up Border Legend in the same race but he was in need of the run. A classy sort with a deal of scope he looks Ascot material. The second Lucanin was very green indeed before and during the heat. He will come on for the experience.

To Hedge Or Not To Hedge?

Readers of my website and blog will know I have been consistently with Most Improved and Discourse through the Winter. With MI now down to around 9/2 on Betfair, those who have the 40 and 33s and wish to hedge should do so now. A victory in the Craven has already been factored into the price.

It is a fact that the big bookmakers are known to have their card marked by certain stables – Ladbrokes are best for Coolmore for example. For Godolphin, Coral have always been well informed and it is interesting that they are now ducking Discourse and are lowest @ 6/1. It is still 11bf for those who have yet to take a single.

Beaten Up

One horse I forgot to mention in my blog of 1^st November was Beaten Up. I backed  Al Kazeem at around 7/2 in the morning for the St Simon Stakes as I did not fancy Mohedian Lady but had to change my position after taking a look at Beaten Up. I thought he had a lot to make up having only won an 85 Rated Stakes at Doncaster but I was knocked out when he finally came into the paddock.  A fine rangy sort although he is a gelding he can make his mark in top company. He has already been pitched in at the deep end to contest the Dubai Classic on Saturday. He will probably be best over a longer trip and there is no guarantee of any pace but I am praying for a bold show.

Autumn Paddock Notes

Newbury 22 October 2011

Estrella was just the pick of a modest bunch for the 2yo Fillies Maiden and she made her experience tell. By Authorized out of the Noseda trained Wannabe Grand she should improve a deal over the Winter.

A fair field for the Horris Hill with Producer looking to have the most potential for 2012. However he blew a mark of 88 in finishing fourth.

The Radley Stakes was a poor affair with top rated Pimpernel confirming Rockfel form.

Pivotman trained by Amanda Perrett, had beaten Carlton House as a juvenile and ran a fine second here in the Class 2 Handicap. By Pivotal, both his wins have been on soft and this progressive sort must he be noted in the top handicaps next term with any cut in the ground.

Inchina trained by Roger Charlton, would have been the paddock preferred for the Radley had she gone there instead of the maiden. By Montjeu out of Incheni who won a Listed event here over ten furlongs, Inchina has a deal of quality and should make Pattern Class in 2012.

Ascot 15 October 2011

Deacon Blues was close to going over the top before winning at Newbury in July and I was looking forward to seeing how he had fared in the interim. As it happened he had put on condition and was in the rudest of health and his winning reflected it. Moonlight Cloud is not big but is an athlete with a deal of quality. She failed to show on this occasion and hopefully will be kept in training.

Dancing Rain looked great before the Champion Fillies and Mares and won for a bold ride by Murtagh.

My blog on Frankel has fairly held up since writing back in December and he confirmed his Champion status. My confidence about him staying has been enhanced since then. After the Greenham it took him to the 12 furlong mark to pull up and on this occasion again he kept going after the race till he was nearly at Swinley Bottom. Staying 10 furlongs next year will be a walk in the park though it seems unlikely that he will be ventured over the Championship Distance of 12 furlongs. A shame!

In the paddock he was turned out fit and well as usual and he sauntered around in a sheep like state. I was on a Channel Four programme a few years ago and was asked what I was looking for when inspecting horses before a race. Not much has changed in the intervening years. I said at the time that I was looking for a horse about 16 hands high, well made and an athlete rather than a weight lifter. Frankel perfectly fits the bill on that score. Following Bullet Train around he is not as big as that one but loses nothing from being too big. If they are too big they tend to lose coordination and the pivot of propulsion tends to shift away from the fulcrum and the maximisation point of exertion. Hopefully he has done all the growing he has to do. The rest of the field were in fine nick with the exception of Dick Turpin who was sweating and on his toes.

Prior to the Champion Stakes the sweat was dripping out of Nathaniel relentlessly and his running here may have been below par as a consequence. Setting a forceful gallop over a trip short of his best did not help.

So You Think is a bruiser of a war horse and hardly typical of the colts Coolmore pursue with a stallion career in mind. These big old lumps rarely do well at stud as they so rarely match the best of the dam's facets and I will be surprised if he succeeds when his racing career is over. Nevertheless he is a class performer if just lacking that crucial bit of toe. I laid Dubai Prince for a place as he has failed to develop at all since last year.

Paddock Notes Newmarket Dewhurst Meeting 8 October 2012

Strong Suit was in superb nick for The Challenge Stakes and won with a show of class. He is sure to run well at The Breeders Cup. The fillies Chachamaidee and Elshabakiya have thrived.

Reply and Crusade from the Aiden O’Brien yard were the picks for the Middle Park and were allowed to go off at generous odds. Bapak Chinta lacks size and Caspar Netscher was starting to show the affects of a busy season.

For The Dewhurst, Most Improved did not have the wraps taken off till late but was impressive when they finally did. In so many ways his career path follows that of Delegator. With two maiden runs behind them they both ran in the Dewhurst and were both paddock picks acquitting themselves well but just lacking Group race experience. Available at 33/1 he is good value for the 2,000 Guineas next spring. Delegator thrived before The Craven and his work on the Manton Gallops precipitated a huge Ante Post plunge. I was sitting very pretty indeed until a certain Sea The Stars waltzed into the Parade Ring on Guineas Day and sent me scurrying to have a saver.

Camelot sluiced up in the Racing Post and there was a nationwide punt on him on the Tuesday prior to Doncaster. An independent bookmaker I know reported a woman coming into his shop on the Tuesday when all the O’Brien horses were still engaged, and asking for £4k on Camelot.

These days Aiden O'Brien does not like to rush his colts for the 2,000 Guineas and Camelot is far more likely to go to The Curragh for the Irish version. I think the reason for this goes back to George Washington, Footstepsinthesand and to a lesser extent Hawk Wing. When I was asked what GW looked like before his Guineas at Newmarket I said that he appeared to have been rushed to get to Newmarket. While he was fit, he was not thriving and blooming like you would want to see one having his first run of the new campaign. GW won impressively but fell apart thereafter and was beaten at the Curragh. It took till September to get him back to his peak. Footstepsinthesand never ran again after winning and Hawk Wing failed to reach the lofty ambitions held for him at Cashel. The performance at HQ and subsequent demise of St Nicholas Abbey's three year old career rather enhances the theory.

Henrythenavigator did win but was noticeably backward for his bow and won in spite of his condition and he confirmed running with New Approach at The Curragh.

As a consequence I do not believe Coolmore will rip the guts out of Camelot to get him to HQ for the first Classic. If they want to prove his speed at the mile they can always drop him back for the Sussex Stakes later in the Summer just as they did with Rip Van Winkle.

Most Improved does not have much else to fear at this point of proceedings. I believe he will take care of the Dewhurst mob and the Middle Park was a condensed affair. That only leaves the French colt Dabirsim and he will probably stay home, assuming he trains on.

Wading was the clear choice for the Rockfel and the Montjeu filly has a promising middle distance career ahead of her.

The Autumn Stakes has been won by the likes of Nayef and Nashwan in the past as well as Masked Marvel running last year. Astrology was heavily backed but failed to win. The well made Galileo colt is worth another chance to atone.