Notable Graduate

Usually in the UK when a hot pot two year old is due to appear for the first time the Betfair markets immediately reflect this and the juvenile is put in at a short price. Everybody wants to know who the best youngster in the yard is. They then bet it to the virtual exclusion of everything else. The work riders put their punters on. Trainers warn their tied Bookmaker and the rest of the touts put it on their tipping lines. All compete in a scramble to get the pick of the early markets. The problem these days is that the early prices go for buttons and nobody gets any real money on.

In Ireland things to date have tended to move at a slower pace more akin to the pre Betfair days.

While this situation is changing and in 2010 alone there was a marked increase in the interest and turnover of Irish racing on Betfair, early markets are virtually ignored. When a top two year old does appear it will quite often be put in at a reasonable price. This is even though nearly everyone has already had the word that the horse is the business. The Irish Bookmakers take as much as they want and the price tends to drift lower during the day rather than suffer an early collapse.

I think the main reason for the tentative nature of the betting is the control that Coolmore have in keeping the lid on the merits of their stock. Being renowned for secrecy it is acknowledged that work riders would be risking their jobs if they started blabbing about the gallops and who was what in the pecking order. Consequently punters for other yards tend to be careful as they never really know if they are going to bump into a potential superstar from the AP O’B outfit.

This was again the case in 2010 when top colts like Pathfork and Casamento were both allowed to go off at generous prices for their first run even though they were considered top talent in their respective yards.

Trained by Dermot Weld, Notable Graduate fell into the same category before his introduction at Leopardstown in a mile maiden late last October. Steadily supported throughout down to a SP of 3/1 he was opposed in the market by two colts with solid enough form in Tiz The Shot and the AP O’Brien trained Pirate Chest. The latter had had three runs and did not look top drawer but with his Montjeu breeding was likely to improve on his fairly modest efforts to date.

To warrant that kind of support Notable Graduate had obviously been keeping company at home with the likes of Dubai Prince Triple Eight and A Word Apart. Confidence would therefore have been pretty strong.

In the race itself Tiz The Shot got first run and although he continued to close to the line he was never going to get there and was still half a length behind at the post with the rest well beaten. The time was good and connections must have been well pleased. He did not run again. Earlier in the afternoon his stablemate – Dubai Prince had been very impressive in landing the Group Three Killavullan Stakes and he is obviously a Classic prospect – for whatever stable Sheikh Mohammed decides to campaign him.

Notable Graduate has a top class pedigree and one that screams middle distances. He is a half brother to the Melbourne Cup winner Media Puzzle and is closely related to the Guineas and Eclipse winner Refuse To Bend. Not only that he is by Galileo who is proving to be a supreme influence for stamina.

A fine rangy individual he has any amount of scope and must make up into a high class sort. At the moment he looks pure St Leger material but could conceivably emerge as a Derby prospect if he continues to thrive. If he fails there what price the Melbourne Cup?