Autumn Paddock Notes

Newbury 22 October 2011

Estrella was just the pick of a modest bunch for the 2yo Fillies Maiden and she made her experience tell. By Authorized out of the Noseda trained Wannabe Grand she should improve a deal over the Winter.

A fair field for the Horris Hill with Producer looking to have the most potential for 2012. However he blew a mark of 88 in finishing fourth.

The Radley Stakes was a poor affair with top rated Pimpernel confirming Rockfel form.

Pivotman trained by Amanda Perrett, had beaten Carlton House as a juvenile and ran a fine second here in the Class 2 Handicap. By Pivotal, both his wins have been on soft and this progressive sort must he be noted in the top handicaps next term with any cut in the ground.

Inchina trained by Roger Charlton, would have been the paddock preferred for the Radley had she gone there instead of the maiden. By Montjeu out of Incheni who won a Listed event here over ten furlongs, Inchina has a deal of quality and should make Pattern Class in 2012.

Ascot 15 October 2011

Deacon Blues was close to going over the top before winning at Newbury in July and I was looking forward to seeing how he had fared in the interim. As it happened he had put on condition and was in the rudest of health and his winning reflected it. Moonlight Cloud is not big but is an athlete with a deal of quality. She failed to show on this occasion and hopefully will be kept in training.

Dancing Rain looked great before the Champion Fillies and Mares and won for a bold ride by Murtagh.

My blog on Frankel has fairly held up since writing back in December and he confirmed his Champion status. My confidence about him staying has been enhanced since then. After the Greenham it took him to the 12 furlong mark to pull up and on this occasion again he kept going after the race till he was nearly at Swinley Bottom. Staying 10 furlongs next year will be a walk in the park though it seems unlikely that he will be ventured over the Championship Distance of 12 furlongs. A shame!

In the paddock he was turned out fit and well as usual and he sauntered around in a sheep like state. I was on a Channel Four programme a few years ago and was asked what I was looking for when inspecting horses before a race. Not much has changed in the intervening years. I said at the time that I was looking for a horse about 16 hands high, well made and an athlete rather than a weight lifter. Frankel perfectly fits the bill on that score. Following Bullet Train around he is not as big as that one but loses nothing from being too big. If they are too big they tend to lose coordination and the pivot of propulsion tends to shift away from the fulcrum and the maximisation point of exertion. Hopefully he has done all the growing he has to do. The rest of the field were in fine nick with the exception of Dick Turpin who was sweating and on his toes.

Prior to the Champion Stakes the sweat was dripping out of Nathaniel relentlessly and his running here may have been below par as a consequence. Setting a forceful gallop over a trip short of his best did not help.

So You Think is a bruiser of a war horse and hardly typical of the colts Coolmore pursue with a stallion career in mind. These big old lumps rarely do well at stud as they so rarely match the best of the dam's facets and I will be surprised if he succeeds when his racing career is over. Nevertheless he is a class performer if just lacking that crucial bit of toe. I laid Dubai Prince for a place as he has failed to develop at all since last year.

Paddock Notes Newmarket Dewhurst Meeting 8 October 2012

Strong Suit was in superb nick for The Challenge Stakes and won with a show of class. He is sure to run well at The Breeders Cup. The fillies Chachamaidee and Elshabakiya have thrived.

Reply and Crusade from the Aiden O’Brien yard were the picks for the Middle Park and were allowed to go off at generous odds. Bapak Chinta lacks size and Caspar Netscher was starting to show the affects of a busy season.

For The Dewhurst, Most Improved did not have the wraps taken off till late but was impressive when they finally did. In so many ways his career path follows that of Delegator. With two maiden runs behind them they both ran in the Dewhurst and were both paddock picks acquitting themselves well but just lacking Group race experience. Available at 33/1 he is good value for the 2,000 Guineas next spring. Delegator thrived before The Craven and his work on the Manton Gallops precipitated a huge Ante Post plunge. I was sitting very pretty indeed until a certain Sea The Stars waltzed into the Parade Ring on Guineas Day and sent me scurrying to have a saver.

Camelot sluiced up in the Racing Post and there was a nationwide punt on him on the Tuesday prior to Doncaster. An independent bookmaker I know reported a woman coming into his shop on the Tuesday when all the O’Brien horses were still engaged, and asking for £4k on Camelot.

These days Aiden O'Brien does not like to rush his colts for the 2,000 Guineas and Camelot is far more likely to go to The Curragh for the Irish version. I think the reason for this goes back to George Washington, Footstepsinthesand and to a lesser extent Hawk Wing. When I was asked what GW looked like before his Guineas at Newmarket I said that he appeared to have been rushed to get to Newmarket. While he was fit, he was not thriving and blooming like you would want to see one having his first run of the new campaign. GW won impressively but fell apart thereafter and was beaten at the Curragh. It took till September to get him back to his peak. Footstepsinthesand never ran again after winning and Hawk Wing failed to reach the lofty ambitions held for him at Cashel. The performance at HQ and subsequent demise of St Nicholas Abbey's three year old career rather enhances the theory.

Henrythenavigator did win but was noticeably backward for his bow and won in spite of his condition and he confirmed running with New Approach at The Curragh.

As a consequence I do not believe Coolmore will rip the guts out of Camelot to get him to HQ for the first Classic. If they want to prove his speed at the mile they can always drop him back for the Sussex Stakes later in the Summer just as they did with Rip Van Winkle.

Most Improved does not have much else to fear at this point of proceedings. I believe he will take care of the Dewhurst mob and the Middle Park was a condensed affair. That only leaves the French colt Dabirsim and he will probably stay home, assuming he trains on.

Wading was the clear choice for the Rockfel and the Montjeu filly has a promising middle distance career ahead of her.

The Autumn Stakes has been won by the likes of Nayef and Nashwan in the past as well as Masked Marvel running last year. Astrology was heavily backed but failed to win. The well made Galileo colt is worth another chance to atone.

Guineas Paddock Notes

Guineas Paddock Notes

My blog put Carlton House up as a Classic contender and his work has been outstanding including over the weekend where he had Ryan Moore praying the Derby was this week. He is now down to 6/1 for Epsom and will take a deal of beating in the Dante. Dermot Weld’s profile in the Racing Post on Sunday led with Notable Graduate and he confirmed the Irish Derby/St Leger route.

Frankel had racing fans searching for new superlatives when producing a unique display of speed to take the Guineas. It was truly awesome.

However the news that Frankel will miss the Derby is devastating. I cannot believe that connections would miss the chance to show the world what he can truly achieve. Given the way he murdered the Guineas field for toe it was on prima facie evidence all too obvious that he might be kept to shorter trips. However it would be folly to think that this is now the only style of running that Frankel can perform. It needs to borne in mind that his runs in the Royal Lodge, the Dewhurst and the Greenham were to some extent held up off the pace. I had believed connections would definitely run him in the Derby and though he would have obviously raced prominently, for all the reasons I gave in my blog on him before Christmas I believe he would stay and win. Even if a stalking horse was put in the field that horse would not have had the speed to get to the front with Frankel around. Epsom suits front runners and At First Sight gave a career best in the race last year. Many others spring to mind. Going back over the years having speed to burn never stopped horses like Sir Ivor, Nijinsky, Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard getting 12 furlongs.

Sending him to the St James Palace will prove nothing. Putting him back in trip will also add nothing to our knowledge of the horse. Sprinters are mainly risen handicappers or failed classic aspirants. Frankel’s sectionals on Saturday were quicker than for Tangerine Trees in the Palace House.

However to win the Derby would have cemented Frankel’s status as eternally legendary. Possibly greater than Secretariat, Ribot, Nijinsky and any other of the greats you care to mention.

I really cannot remember when I was so gutted. After all the years of following the game I am absolutely distraught. Totally crestfallen.

Of the others in the Guineas field Casamento looked to have done really well and can give some good performances this term over middle distances and Pathfork appeared to have strengthened. Roderick O’Connor has not grown over the Winter. Happy Today and Loving Spirit are going the right way and can improve.

Native Ruler has always been a favourite of mine and was on my short list for the Derby two years ago. He was the most backward in condition before the Jockey Club Stakes but retains all his class. He could have a mighty season. Campanologist was on good terms and can win a few pots abroad. Indian Days had come on since Newbury but had to concede the penalty.

Seal Rock will improve a deal for his win in the 6f handicap and can be aimed at the big prize money sprint handicaps. In the Newmarket Stakes Cai Shen is thriving but got stopped at a crucial stage and could not get the required momentum into the dip. I will back him to reverse the form with the winner should they meet again.

Brian Meehan’s team have yet to hit form and Zain Shamardal is the one to take from the 8f handicap. Group One entries may yet be fulfilled.

There was nothing outstanding in the 1,000 Guineas field. Hooray has not grown in the interim and went too fast. Those following got swallowed up by those racing from off the pace. Take out the pacemaker and the result could have been different. Havant is a strong sort and might be the best Oaks candidate from the Sunday runners.

I am not sure if Robert Cowell has got to the bottom of Lui Rei yet and he can figure this season.

At Ascot on the Wednesday Magic City was the pick for the 2yo race and can improve for the experience.

Flood Plain is the one to take from the Fillies Mile. She is much better than the bare form suggests. The favourite Hezmah was short to post and may appreciate better ground.

Brian Meehan’s City Leader and Aim To Prosper will do better when the stable hits form.

Even with a penalty Libranno was disappointing and is surely better than this.

Craven and Greenham Paddock Notes

Due to a bereavement I have not been able to tip anything recently but will be increasing my attention from now on.

My earlier blogs re Frankel Notable Graduate and Carlton House still stand and have been enhanced this week.

Frankel has trained on and is a top class individual. He won well. Docile in the paddock he strode away nicely. My blog in December put him up as a Derby horse and I thought the Greenham was more of a good Derby trial for him than the Guineas.  The second Excelebration has done well physically.

Notable Graduate won nicely last Thursday and Dermot Weld was very effusive afterwards. He will point him at the Derrinstown Derby trial before the Irish Derby. Carlton House worked really well on Saturday and remains on course for Epsom.

I backed Cape Dollar in the Fred Darling. Although still to come in her coat she disappointed but I remember both Crimplene and Lahan getting beat here before both won their respective 1,000 Guineas. Cassis was below par before taking the Musidora. Cape Dollar could run into a place in the 1,000 Guineas in a fortnight.

Beaten favourites Verdant, Suhaili and Kirthill all needed the run and will strip fitter.

World Domination was the pick for his maiden and is clearly Group class. It will be interesting to see how he steps up for the run. I will take a firmer view next time.

Lajooj like all the Al Zarooni’s this week was incredibly fit and is one to oppose next time.

Dubawi Sound is one of the best sons of Dubawi I have seen and there was no fluke about this. He could go to Royal Ascot. Quadrant ran well and will improve. The Stoute horses in the maidens were unfit.

No fireworks at the Craven but plenty of types with potential and scope for improvement. Utley was beat by the weight in the Free Handicap and can do well. Pausanias was the least fit and will progress.

Maqaasid was fit and well and beaten by the 3lb penalty. She will almost certainly have a bash at the 1,000 first. Sing Softly will do better over a mile.

Specific Gravity like a few of Cecil’s was not at his peak and is the one to follow from the race. Midsumer Sun is a quality medium sized sort who will blossom as a consequence of the experience.

Air Traffic was the one to take from the Wood Ditton. Questioning could not resist the super form of the Hannon duo. Native Khan carried stable confidence and got warm and may have blown up. This good actioned colt could place in a fortnight’s time. Polytechnician allowed the winner first run and should do better over a longer trip.

Gary Wiltshire's Apple Pie

Seeing Gary Wiltshire looking big and well on the dogs from Wimbledon on Sky TV recently, reminded me of a time at Newbury Races.

Now Gary loves a bet whether as a bookie or as a punter and I dare say his love of the action may at times have bordered on the obsessive. Most of us punters and racing enthusiasts must have at some stage wondered whether our involvement was becoming too much and perhaps jeopardising our outlook on life.

The other night it was pretty obvious that if there is one thing in life that can possibly compare with his love of racing – whether it be dogs or horses – it is his love of food. There was once a debate in the Ring as to who was the greatest gastronome - Gary or Johnny Lights. The debate swayed either way but one thing was certain - it was strictly a two runner book with the rags 100/1 and getting bigger.

Gary was making a book at Newbury a few years ago on the back line and before he joined the Tote. I was fortunate enough to back a winner with him. Giving him time to pay out his punters, I waited for a few minutes to allow him and his staff to organise the bag and count out my winnings. With all the tickets paid out and only a couple of other bookie’s accounts to settle Gary got off the stand and easing back a couple of yards to absolve himself from the action, proceeded to pull out a Blackberry and Apple pie from his pocket and carefully extricate it from the wrapping. Meanwhile as the Clerk counted my readies it became increasingly obvious that Gary did not want to be disturbed. At which point one of his staff had to ask him about a payment from another bookie. Gary gave him such a look of disdain that anyone noticing would have quickly removed themselves from the vicinity for fear of their life. The Floorman winced and decided to sort it himself – rightly or wrongly.

It was becoming clear that if Gary could have stepped into an alternate universe so as to allow him to concentrate solely on enjoying his pie he would have willingly done so. As it was he had to reside in the real world while willing to die anybody who had the temerity to disturb his peace.

I could not stand it any more and had to give Gary the wind up.

‘Ere Gary’ says I. Gary gave me the last in his repertoire of looks that kill while at the same time struggling to tear himself away from the solitude of the sacred relationship he was having with his delicacy.

‘What’ he curtly growled.

‘I bet you would love a bit of custard on that pie. You know – the nice one that Marks and Spencer do’. Gary’s eyes went up into his head faster than a Harrier Jump Jet and I thought he was going to feint at the sheer thought of total ecstasy which would have happened if I could have poured the exquisite sauce on his cherished fruit pie.

I don't know if Gary had a list of horses to follow from the meeting but I can bet odds on what was on his shopping list the next time he visited ‘Marksies.’

Fantasy Fry Southwell 2.40. Bet To Win. 5/2 generally available. Looks a happening horse

Notable Graduate

Usually in the UK when a hot pot two year old is due to appear for the first time the Betfair markets immediately reflect this and the juvenile is put in at a short price. Everybody wants to know who the best youngster in the yard is. They then bet it to the virtual exclusion of everything else. The work riders put their punters on. Trainers warn their tied Bookmaker and the rest of the touts put it on their tipping lines. All compete in a scramble to get the pick of the early markets. The problem these days is that the early prices go for buttons and nobody gets any real money on.

In Ireland things to date have tended to move at a slower pace more akin to the pre Betfair days.

While this situation is changing and in 2010 alone there was a marked increase in the interest and turnover of Irish racing on Betfair, early markets are virtually ignored. When a top two year old does appear it will quite often be put in at a reasonable price. This is even though nearly everyone has already had the word that the horse is the business. The Irish Bookmakers take as much as they want and the price tends to drift lower during the day rather than suffer an early collapse.

I think the main reason for the tentative nature of the betting is the control that Coolmore have in keeping the lid on the merits of their stock. Being renowned for secrecy it is acknowledged that work riders would be risking their jobs if they started blabbing about the gallops and who was what in the pecking order. Consequently punters for other yards tend to be careful as they never really know if they are going to bump into a potential superstar from the AP O’B outfit.

This was again the case in 2010 when top colts like Pathfork and Casamento were both allowed to go off at generous prices for their first run even though they were considered top talent in their respective yards.

Trained by Dermot Weld, Notable Graduate fell into the same category before his introduction at Leopardstown in a mile maiden late last October. Steadily supported throughout down to a SP of 3/1 he was opposed in the market by two colts with solid enough form in Tiz The Shot and the AP O’Brien trained Pirate Chest. The latter had had three runs and did not look top drawer but with his Montjeu breeding was likely to improve on his fairly modest efforts to date.

To warrant that kind of support Notable Graduate had obviously been keeping company at home with the likes of Dubai Prince Triple Eight and A Word Apart. Confidence would therefore have been pretty strong.

In the race itself Tiz The Shot got first run and although he continued to close to the line he was never going to get there and was still half a length behind at the post with the rest well beaten. The time was good and connections must have been well pleased. He did not run again. Earlier in the afternoon his stablemate – Dubai Prince had been very impressive in landing the Group Three Killavullan Stakes and he is obviously a Classic prospect – for whatever stable Sheikh Mohammed decides to campaign him.

Notable Graduate has a top class pedigree and one that screams middle distances. He is a half brother to the Melbourne Cup winner Media Puzzle and is closely related to the Guineas and Eclipse winner Refuse To Bend. Not only that he is by Galileo who is proving to be a supreme influence for stamina.

A fine rangy individual he has any amount of scope and must make up into a high class sort. At the moment he looks pure St Leger material but could conceivably emerge as a Derby prospect if he continues to thrive. If he fails there what price the Melbourne Cup?

Flat Contenders 2011 (1)

Carlton House
The Queen continues to race a fairly sizeable string and has enjoyed a fair level of success in recent years but has not owned a decent colt for a while. Quadrille was just touched off at Royal Ascot last year and he is probably the best of recent times. However Her Majesty might have one better than that in Carlton House. His sire is Street Cry whose record is well established with such as Zenyatta and Street Sense heading the litany of Group class performers and his dam is the Bustino mare Talented who was a Group Two performer over middle distances. After a promising second at Salisbury on soft ground Carlton House went for a mile maiden at Newbury in late October. Reported to have worked well beforehand and touted as one of the leading lights in the yard he was allowed to go off at a generous 3/1. Always going well under Ryan Moore he eased to the front over two furlongs out and turned the race into a procession with the field well strung out. In the paddock he had the full blanket on and though it was impossible to form a full opinion there was enough on show to suggest he is a high class sort. The other one mentioned out of the yard is Sea Moon who was hard pressed to win at Yarmouth. However the ground was desperate that day and it would be premature to form a strong opinion on the basis of that run. In any case Carlton House looks a quality prospect and a decent contender.