Craven and Greenham Paddock Notes

Due to a bereavement I have not been able to tip anything recently but will be increasing my attention from now on.

My earlier blogs re Frankel Notable Graduate and Carlton House still stand and have been enhanced this week.

Frankel has trained on and is a top class individual. He won well. Docile in the paddock he strode away nicely. My blog in December put him up as a Derby horse and I thought the Greenham was more of a good Derby trial for him than the Guineas.  The second Excelebration has done well physically.

Notable Graduate won nicely last Thursday and Dermot Weld was very effusive afterwards. He will point him at the Derrinstown Derby trial before the Irish Derby. Carlton House worked really well on Saturday and remains on course for Epsom.

I backed Cape Dollar in the Fred Darling. Although still to come in her coat she disappointed but I remember both Crimplene and Lahan getting beat here before both won their respective 1,000 Guineas. Cassis was below par before taking the Musidora. Cape Dollar could run into a place in the 1,000 Guineas in a fortnight.

Beaten favourites Verdant, Suhaili and Kirthill all needed the run and will strip fitter.

World Domination was the pick for his maiden and is clearly Group class. It will be interesting to see how he steps up for the run. I will take a firmer view next time.

Lajooj like all the Al Zarooni’s this week was incredibly fit and is one to oppose next time.

Dubawi Sound is one of the best sons of Dubawi I have seen and there was no fluke about this. He could go to Royal Ascot. Quadrant ran well and will improve. The Stoute horses in the maidens were unfit.

No fireworks at the Craven but plenty of types with potential and scope for improvement. Utley was beat by the weight in the Free Handicap and can do well. Pausanias was the least fit and will progress.

Maqaasid was fit and well and beaten by the 3lb penalty. She will almost certainly have a bash at the 1,000 first. Sing Softly will do better over a mile.

Specific Gravity like a few of Cecil’s was not at his peak and is the one to follow from the race. Midsumer Sun is a quality medium sized sort who will blossom as a consequence of the experience.

Air Traffic was the one to take from the Wood Ditton. Questioning could not resist the super form of the Hannon duo. Native Khan carried stable confidence and got warm and may have blown up. This good actioned colt could place in a fortnight’s time. Polytechnician allowed the winner first run and should do better over a longer trip.

Gary Wiltshire's Apple Pie

Seeing Gary Wiltshire looking big and well on the dogs from Wimbledon on Sky TV recently, reminded me of a time at Newbury Races.

Now Gary loves a bet whether as a bookie or as a punter and I dare say his love of the action may at times have bordered on the obsessive. Most of us punters and racing enthusiasts must have at some stage wondered whether our involvement was becoming too much and perhaps jeopardising our outlook on life.

The other night it was pretty obvious that if there is one thing in life that can possibly compare with his love of racing – whether it be dogs or horses – it is his love of food. There was once a debate in the Ring as to who was the greatest gastronome - Gary or Johnny Lights. The debate swayed either way but one thing was certain - it was strictly a two runner book with the rags 100/1 and getting bigger.

Gary was making a book at Newbury a few years ago on the back line and before he joined the Tote. I was fortunate enough to back a winner with him. Giving him time to pay out his punters, I waited for a few minutes to allow him and his staff to organise the bag and count out my winnings. With all the tickets paid out and only a couple of other bookie’s accounts to settle Gary got off the stand and easing back a couple of yards to absolve himself from the action, proceeded to pull out a Blackberry and Apple pie from his pocket and carefully extricate it from the wrapping. Meanwhile as the Clerk counted my readies it became increasingly obvious that Gary did not want to be disturbed. At which point one of his staff had to ask him about a payment from another bookie. Gary gave him such a look of disdain that anyone noticing would have quickly removed themselves from the vicinity for fear of their life. The Floorman winced and decided to sort it himself – rightly or wrongly.

It was becoming clear that if Gary could have stepped into an alternate universe so as to allow him to concentrate solely on enjoying his pie he would have willingly done so. As it was he had to reside in the real world while willing to die anybody who had the temerity to disturb his peace.

I could not stand it any more and had to give Gary the wind up.

‘Ere Gary’ says I. Gary gave me the last in his repertoire of looks that kill while at the same time struggling to tear himself away from the solitude of the sacred relationship he was having with his delicacy.

‘What’ he curtly growled.

‘I bet you would love a bit of custard on that pie. You know – the nice one that Marks and Spencer do’. Gary’s eyes went up into his head faster than a Harrier Jump Jet and I thought he was going to feint at the sheer thought of total ecstasy which would have happened if I could have poured the exquisite sauce on his cherished fruit pie.

I don't know if Gary had a list of horses to follow from the meeting but I can bet odds on what was on his shopping list the next time he visited ‘Marksies.’

Fantasy Fry Southwell 2.40. Bet To Win. 5/2 generally available. Looks a happening horse

Notable Graduate

Usually in the UK when a hot pot two year old is due to appear for the first time the Betfair markets immediately reflect this and the juvenile is put in at a short price. Everybody wants to know who the best youngster in the yard is. They then bet it to the virtual exclusion of everything else. The work riders put their punters on. Trainers warn their tied Bookmaker and the rest of the touts put it on their tipping lines. All compete in a scramble to get the pick of the early markets. The problem these days is that the early prices go for buttons and nobody gets any real money on.

In Ireland things to date have tended to move at a slower pace more akin to the pre Betfair days.

While this situation is changing and in 2010 alone there was a marked increase in the interest and turnover of Irish racing on Betfair, early markets are virtually ignored. When a top two year old does appear it will quite often be put in at a reasonable price. This is even though nearly everyone has already had the word that the horse is the business. The Irish Bookmakers take as much as they want and the price tends to drift lower during the day rather than suffer an early collapse.

I think the main reason for the tentative nature of the betting is the control that Coolmore have in keeping the lid on the merits of their stock. Being renowned for secrecy it is acknowledged that work riders would be risking their jobs if they started blabbing about the gallops and who was what in the pecking order. Consequently punters for other yards tend to be careful as they never really know if they are going to bump into a potential superstar from the AP O’B outfit.

This was again the case in 2010 when top colts like Pathfork and Casamento were both allowed to go off at generous prices for their first run even though they were considered top talent in their respective yards.

Trained by Dermot Weld, Notable Graduate fell into the same category before his introduction at Leopardstown in a mile maiden late last October. Steadily supported throughout down to a SP of 3/1 he was opposed in the market by two colts with solid enough form in Tiz The Shot and the AP O’Brien trained Pirate Chest. The latter had had three runs and did not look top drawer but with his Montjeu breeding was likely to improve on his fairly modest efforts to date.

To warrant that kind of support Notable Graduate had obviously been keeping company at home with the likes of Dubai Prince Triple Eight and A Word Apart. Confidence would therefore have been pretty strong.

In the race itself Tiz The Shot got first run and although he continued to close to the line he was never going to get there and was still half a length behind at the post with the rest well beaten. The time was good and connections must have been well pleased. He did not run again. Earlier in the afternoon his stablemate – Dubai Prince had been very impressive in landing the Group Three Killavullan Stakes and he is obviously a Classic prospect – for whatever stable Sheikh Mohammed decides to campaign him.

Notable Graduate has a top class pedigree and one that screams middle distances. He is a half brother to the Melbourne Cup winner Media Puzzle and is closely related to the Guineas and Eclipse winner Refuse To Bend. Not only that he is by Galileo who is proving to be a supreme influence for stamina.

A fine rangy individual he has any amount of scope and must make up into a high class sort. At the moment he looks pure St Leger material but could conceivably emerge as a Derby prospect if he continues to thrive. If he fails there what price the Melbourne Cup?

Flat Contenders 2011 (1)

Carlton House
The Queen continues to race a fairly sizeable string and has enjoyed a fair level of success in recent years but has not owned a decent colt for a while. Quadrille was just touched off at Royal Ascot last year and he is probably the best of recent times. However Her Majesty might have one better than that in Carlton House. His sire is Street Cry whose record is well established with such as Zenyatta and Street Sense heading the litany of Group class performers and his dam is the Bustino mare Talented who was a Group Two performer over middle distances. After a promising second at Salisbury on soft ground Carlton House went for a mile maiden at Newbury in late October. Reported to have worked well beforehand and touted as one of the leading lights in the yard he was allowed to go off at a generous 3/1. Always going well under Ryan Moore he eased to the front over two furlongs out and turned the race into a procession with the field well strung out. In the paddock he had the full blanket on and though it was impossible to form a full opinion there was enough on show to suggest he is a high class sort. The other one mentioned out of the yard is Sea Moon who was hard pressed to win at Yarmouth. However the ground was desperate that day and it would be premature to form a strong opinion on the basis of that run. In any case Carlton House looks a quality prospect and a decent contender.

How the Tote Can Solve All of Racing’s Financial Problems

When writing for the RFO and Sports Advisor in the past I took every opportunity to stress how important it was for the Tote to reduce the percentages that it took from the Pools. I also had a letter published in the Racing Post on 4^th July 2007 on the subject.

The debate in Parliament tomorrow 1^st March could prove crucial as to the course that the future Tote takes. Racing’s finances continue to suffer and a thriving Tote in the right hands could do so much to strengthen the Sport

Imagine that you are going to buy an item on the Internet, say a pen or a book. Identical product and delivery times etc. The three best quotes are £14, £6.50 and £5.

When you buy the £5 item you are also buying knowing that most of the money is going to Charity or a good cause.

It seems pretty logical that the latter would be the preferred choice.

The same scenario would be the case if you applied the same principles to betting on horses.

At the moment the Tote prices itself out of the betting market because it deducts too much from the Race Pools especially via the Internet. A couple of years ago the then Chairman of the Tote – Peter Jones likened the running of the Tote as to running a corner shop on Internet profit margins. My riposte at the time was why wasn’t the Tote running an Internet business on the Internet.

Racing could be completely self financing in my opinion if the Tote were to cut its deductions on the Internet side of its business to 5% from its win and place pools.

The bulk of betting on horseracing in the UK still takes place on the win and place singles market with each market on Betfair matching around £1million meaning that £500,000 is actually staked. That amount is supplemented by bets made in the betting shops, racecourses and the Tote itself. The deductions from SP bets is around 14%. Betfair overrounds are around 102% plus the deductions of say 4.5% average, making 6.5%. The Tote currently deducts 13.5 % from the win pools and 24% from the Place.

If the Tote were to deduct just 5% they would then undercut both the Bookmakers and Betfair. At the moment the Pools are painfully weak but they would soon increase and gather strength once punters realise where the value is. There would then be a snowball effect where the pools would continue to attract the bigger punters as they become large enough to accommodate bigger stakes. Imagine the Pools at Cheltenham where they could be the best option for punters. The pools could easily swell to over a £1million. Once recognised by punters as the preferred option this momentum would carry on for betting on the rest of racing.

I should add at this point that the 5% deduction would apply strictly to the Internet business. The racecourses and betting shops would have to carry a greater take out to cover higher overheads. Perhaps it would have stay at around 15% to break even. The Internet infrastructure is already in place and increased turnover would carry nothing in the way of additional and increased overheads.

The Internet Tote could handle multiple bets and any winnings in a yankee bet from the first winning selection would carry on into the next pool and so on. Pools would thus be strengthened again.

In fact once established, the Internet dividend or price could form the basis of a new Starting Price return. This could be used by Bookmakers when settling bets in the shops. The Tote could then charge the Betting Industry a fee if both parties are agreeable. The Tote could then develop a role as the layer of the last resort where if a punter could not get on anywhere else he could bet into the Tote pool. Bookmakers in turn could hedge into the pools in order to reduce any liabilities.

Betfair would still carry on and may lose some turnover to the Tote but would still offer a wider array of betting options and it is quite probable that the overall market for Horserace betting would increase as a whole. The main reason is that at 5% the deductions would compare favourably with betting on other sports such as football or golf. Racing could then recover some of the turnover lost in the last few years.

The shape of turnover would in turn have an effect on the nature of the racing programme. At the moment most of the racing in the UK takes place on handicaps. The off course bookies who provide the levy and offer racecourses fees to put them on, prefer handicaps as they offer bigger gross profit margins. Betting on Betfair suggests otherwise where condition races attract bigger turnover than handicaps.

Under a 5% regime cards would reflect the bigger turnover races. It is quite possible that claiming races get bigger turnover than handicaps. Racecards would then reflect the true betting market.

Security would improve. In Hong Kong security is much tighter because the bigger punters including Syndicates demand that racing is straight so they can have faith in the form. The same impetus would take place in the UK and as punters have more faith then turnover would grow again.

If Tote turnover were to approach £100k and £40k for the win and place pools per race then gross profits would be around £75Millions per annum. If that turnover were to double to £200k and £80k respectively then the £150Million gross profit would be enough to totally finance British Racing. It need not stop there. If overseas punters were to bet into the Pools then turnover could be garnered from all over the World. British Racing would be number one globally with consequent benefits for the rest of the Industry.

At the moment under the Gross Profits system the Racing Authorities have no incentive for punters to win. In fact owners get more if punters lose. This is a chronic, adversarial and contradictory way of running things. Under a new Tote regime Authorities would have an incentive to get punters to bet more and everyone would be working in the same direction.

So far the Tote has been hindered by a management that has had no incentive to develop the product. Under the current incumbent Trevor Beaumont all the indications are that he is acting in the interest of the Off Course Betting Industry. The bookies have always had considerable sway and there has been little doubt in my mind that the Government has deliberately kept the Tote quiet and ineffectual.

Now that the wraps are off things could undertake a significant shift.

If Betfred or Coral take control and introduce a 5% regime this could benefit punters but not necessarily the owners and racing in general. If the Ruben brothers get it I think this could be the end of racing as we know it and it could go into gradual and permanent decline. If Andy Stewart gets it then potentially this could be the best option as his City and Financial knowledge allied to his love of the game could mean a more positive direction can develop.

Hopefully tomorrow’s debate will take this idea on board.

Saturday Racing

Suits Me is the Bet To Win at Lingfield 4.20. Cnditions are now in his favour.