After a stunning first season Frankel is rightly favourite for both the 2,000 Guineas and the Derby – at 6/4 and 6/1 respectively.
I believe Frankel is a good bet for the Derby but it might be borne in mind that his trainer Henry Cecil has on more than one occasion cast doubts on the colt’s potential to stay the 12 furlongs of the Blue Riband at Epsom
These doubts are probably based on two factors. The first is the blinding speed shown by Frankel on the gallops and in his races. Secondly on the racing performance of his dam – Kind who never ran or won further than 7 furlongs.
Just whether we should discount the staying prospects of a horse because of the sheer abundance of his speed takes this writer back to the very start of his interest in the sport and the very question of stamina in the thoroughbred is one that initiated a debate that has been a feature of the fascination and speculation ever since.
The year was 1968 and the favourite for that year’s Derby was Sir Ivor trained by the legendary Irish trainer Vincent O’Brien and ridden by the no less brilliant Lester Piggott. I think I was quite literally in short trousers at the time and hated horse racing whilst otherwise being totally enamoured with any pastime whatsoever that could be classified under the umbrella of ‘Sport’.
At the time racing received hardly any coverage outside the televising of live action from the racecourse covered by the BBC and ITV. It was only when the Derby was featured on Sportsnight did the subject attract my attention. Sir Ivor was the odds on favourite for the Derby that year on the back of a superb win in the 2,000 Guineas which itself fulfilled all the promise of a stellar juvenile career culminating in a win in the Group One Gran Criterium, at Longchamp.
Opposition in the Derby Ante Post market had come primarily from the man himself William Hill who by then had coined for his firm – the World’s Largest Bookmaker – with few people opposing him for the title. Being a breeder and breeding expert Hill had formed the view that the breeding of Sir Ivor did not have sufficient stamina to warrant him getting the trip. As a consequence he continue to oppose him in the market by laying large bets. By the time of the race his liabilities were reported to be in excess of half a million pounds – a huge sum at the time and not one to be matched today by a publicly quoted Bookmaker. I asked my father if the colt would get the trip to which the reply was – “ Piggott will make sure he will”.
And that basically was that. In the race Piggott tracked the wrong horse in Remand who had beaten Connaught in the Chester Vase but in the Derby itself it was Sandy Barclay on the Noel Murless trained front runner who nearly stole the prize from the start. Realising late in the day that he had better get after, Piggott asked Sir Ivor for his effort and the animal produced one of the most outstanding bursts of speed that followers of the sport have ever been privileged to behold.
It was a sight that was to forever be seared in the memory.
In the years to follow both Nijinsky and Mill Reef were to receive the same kind of analysis as to whether their fragile American breeding would allow them to enter the hallowed halls of Epsom Derby winners and on both occasions the answer was the same, resulting in stunning victories. After which William Hill had probably got the message.
While the subject of stamina in the thoroughbred deserves a chapter on its own to consider all the ramifications, what it really boils down to is whether a top class racehorse is using up as much oxygen and expending as much energy as a horse of lesser ability. A horse travelling at 90% of his potential is less like likely to use up all of his gas than a horse going flat out and thus running into oxygen debt that much sooner.
It is pretty obvious that so long as he settles in his race that Frankel has the class to last out the 12 furlongs of the Derby trip than his rivals quite simply because he will not be using as much throttle.
The second element of the analysis is the stamina of his dam Kind.
Kind first saw the racecourse in September 2003 as a two year old. Being by Danehill out of the Lancashire Oaks winner Rainbow Lake it looked likely at the time that the filly would be better suited by middle distances in her third year. The evidence for her likely stamina was to be endorsed just 8 days later when her half brother Powerscourt was to run third in the Irish St Leger over 14 furlongs at the Curragh. She finished third in her first race run for maiden fillies being sent off favourite at odds of 6/4 behind the equally well backed Unshooda trained by Barry Hills, punted at 7/4 after a fine second in the Convivial Stakes at York.
It was a promising first outing. The next day ‘Couch’ Winstanley rang me to ask what she had looked like in the paddock. When looking at horses both in the pre parade ring and the main paddock I am constantly making notes on every feature of every animal building up a profile as I go along In the first stages of the process the notes indicate nothing much – no more than Rolf Harris doing one of his sketches on TV when the audience has little idea of what the eventual painting will look like. Sometimes it is only when looking at the notes some time later does the significance of all the tiny details begin to emerge as a coherent portrait of the whole subject being viewed. Sometimes a horse will be in paddock early to allow a lengthy and full analysis: sometimes they come in very late allowing only a cursory inspection.
Perhaps it was the latter with Kind as the notes indicated that she was backward in condition and thus not fully fit which is quite understandable for fillies having their first race in public as the intention for most trainers is to make the experience as gentle and friendly without frightening the horse and making it daunting for the future. However the one thing that did strike me was the sheer power in her quarters and I told Couch that although I did not see enough to make an assessment of her overall athleticism that she had the best rear engine of any juvenile filly I had seen that season. He in turn told me that not only had Kind been working with older colts but that she had been keeping tabs on the top sprinters in the yard including the likes of Avonbridge who had just a couple of weeks before finished third, beaten just over a length, in the Group One Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville in France. Along with entries for the top fillies races the Chevely Park Stakes and the Fillies Mile it was easy to see why Kind had been so well backed for her first race even though she needed the run.
With so much stamina in her pedigree it seemed logical to assume that Kind would be better when fitter and that if she carried her home form to the racecourse then she would be a likely candidate for the 1,000 Guineas run the following Spring. Despite obvious rumours as to her home ability there was no early move in the Ante Post market and I decided to wait for a couple of days and have a cash bet in the betting office rather than try and get a bet on the phone with a credit office who quite often trim the odds when you ring up. When you can see a price in the betting shop on the screens they will invariably lay it.
The following Tuesday I made my way from South Croydon to Lingfield racecourse to attend the afternoon fixture on a warm and very pleasant September afternoon. On the way I stopped off at the Coral shop in Warlingham. With the 1,000 Guineas being so far off next May, there were no prices available on any of the screens. The manager rang head office to get a quote. “How much do want on” he reasonably asked. “I will tell you when I know the odds” I quietly but respectfully replied. 66/1 came back and that seemed fair. Right says I “I’ll have £20,000 to £300 and £20 a place.
The manager choked a little as he reached for the phone to confirm the transaction but fair play, the bet was called without a hitch thus confirming a policy I have had over the years that you are more likely getting a full bet without being knocked back when producing the readies than trying to get on via the phone and these days the Internet where they bet you in buttons. That was enough for the time being.
Kind next ran at Newmarket four weeks later again in a 6 furlong maiden though I had expected connections to step her up in trip. In view of the gallops reports I was eagerly looking forward to filling in the voids that were missing at Kempton. Odds on in the early betting forays I was very surprised to see her looking at least as backward as for her introduction. Despite confirming my first impressions about her strength behind the saddle I was otherwise disappointed. I rang Couch to tell him not to bother but the odds had in any case put off many.
Reappearing in the Spring she was for the third time backward though she ran with promise being headed close home. The Ante Post ticket went into the bin. She did not reappear till late June and I had long stopped asking about her home work. She was entered for a 7f maiden on the Polytrack at Kempton at 6.35 on a Saturday evening. Having raced at Newmarket for the Criterion Meeting I made good time and was back in South Croydon and decided to go and see how Kind was going to perform on her reappearance. I reached just in time to watch the race and pulled up outside the betting shop with a minute to spare. The favourite in the morning I had expected her to go off a long odds on favourite but was extremely surprised to see her drifting in the betting to around 5/6. In this heat she would have been value at 1/6. Support had come for the Richard Hannon trained Farewell Gift who though a good looking colt had dodgy front legs and was never going to be a force.
Too late to ring my partner and tell her to switch on the computer to bet on Betfair. Too late to get to the Cash point I then moved swiftly to get a betting slip and bet Kind with whatever remnants were still in my pockets. ‘Hang on’ I said to the cashier as I emptied my pockets. It was just as well I was the only one putting a bet on in the almost empty shop. ‘How much do you want on’ as the last of the contestants were entering the stalls. By now the notes were on the counter and I was counting out the last of the coins. I made it £29.62 and deciding on trimming the bits to keep the bet kosher I said £29.50 to win. The look on the cashier’s face beggared belief as he must have thought I was the king of the desperadoes to be putting on my very last in order to punt the odds on filly. She filly barely broke sweat and cantered home to win effortlessly and I held my head high as I collected my winnings not making a reappearance in the establishment for a while to come.
That was the furthest that Kind ever went though I would have loved to see her go at least a mile. So when stamina doubts are raised about Frankel he should at least be given the benefit of the doubt on this score alone.
The final factor in the equation is the supreme influence for stamina that is Galileo who imparts an almost unquestionable influence in this sphere and if nothing else it would be this conclusive piece of proof that makes almost total my belief that Frankel will stay.
Frankel ran at Newmarket first time out and although I did not attend in person the colt made the best impression of any juvenile I had seen so far in 2010. A very impressive individual he travelled sweetly and was gently nursed home to win by a neck with the front two well clear. I had attended the fixture the previous few years to cover for Ken Pitterson and do the paddock column for the Weekender but a fall out with the Editor did not make attendance mandatory. A pity as I had headlined both Conduit and Delegator in earlier reports as horses to follow despite them having been beaten in their respective maiden races.
The same afternoon, Saamidd had made an equally impressive first effort at Newbury for Godolphin. The next day I asked John one of the jockey’s agents what he thought and he confirmed the promise. I added that he would have to be every bit as good to ruffle the feathers of Frankel who I said was the best I had seen.
An excellent win at Doncaster in a good time was followed by an entry for the Royal Lodge at Ascot late September. He looked top notch in the pre parade but was fitted with a full light blanket in the main paddock which was unusual for a Henry Cecil runner and which rendered full viewing impossible. A fashion which started with Mark Johnston seems to have infected many other trainers like a dose of ringworm and it is pointless going racing if you cannot see the horses properly. If Racing wants people to go racing then trainers should at least do their bit by refraining from this pathetic habit which serves no purpose whatsoever especially when the weather is kind enough which it was both at Ascot and at Newmarket for the Dewhurst.
My opinion is that he is top class on looks but without being able to see the horse fully I cannot say just how highly I rate him. Hopefully we will see more next year. His run in the Dewhurst saw him establish himself as the king of the colts with a superb display despite dropping back in distance and pulling early in the race. As the pace increased he eased to the outside and for a moment brought back memories of the peerless Nijinsky as he powered clear to manifest my impression of him as the best youngster of 2010.
When somebody with the experience and stature of Newmarket Work Watcher David Milnes says he is the best he has seen since the majestic Dubai Millennium then the final piece of the infrastructure is in place.
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