Autumn Paddock Notes

Newbury 22 October 2011

Estrella was just the pick of a modest bunch for the 2yo Fillies Maiden and she made her experience tell. By Authorized out of the Noseda trained Wannabe Grand she should improve a deal over the Winter.

A fair field for the Horris Hill with Producer looking to have the most potential for 2012. However he blew a mark of 88 in finishing fourth.

The Radley Stakes was a poor affair with top rated Pimpernel confirming Rockfel form.

Pivotman trained by Amanda Perrett, had beaten Carlton House as a juvenile and ran a fine second here in the Class 2 Handicap. By Pivotal, both his wins have been on soft and this progressive sort must he be noted in the top handicaps next term with any cut in the ground.

Inchina trained by Roger Charlton, would have been the paddock preferred for the Radley had she gone there instead of the maiden. By Montjeu out of Incheni who won a Listed event here over ten furlongs, Inchina has a deal of quality and should make Pattern Class in 2012.

Ascot 15 October 2011

Deacon Blues was close to going over the top before winning at Newbury in July and I was looking forward to seeing how he had fared in the interim. As it happened he had put on condition and was in the rudest of health and his winning reflected it. Moonlight Cloud is not big but is an athlete with a deal of quality. She failed to show on this occasion and hopefully will be kept in training.

Dancing Rain looked great before the Champion Fillies and Mares and won for a bold ride by Murtagh.

My blog on Frankel has fairly held up since writing back in December and he confirmed his Champion status. My confidence about him staying has been enhanced since then. After the Greenham it took him to the 12 furlong mark to pull up and on this occasion again he kept going after the race till he was nearly at Swinley Bottom. Staying 10 furlongs next year will be a walk in the park though it seems unlikely that he will be ventured over the Championship Distance of 12 furlongs. A shame!

In the paddock he was turned out fit and well as usual and he sauntered around in a sheep like state. I was on a Channel Four programme a few years ago and was asked what I was looking for when inspecting horses before a race. Not much has changed in the intervening years. I said at the time that I was looking for a horse about 16 hands high, well made and an athlete rather than a weight lifter. Frankel perfectly fits the bill on that score. Following Bullet Train around he is not as big as that one but loses nothing from being too big. If they are too big they tend to lose coordination and the pivot of propulsion tends to shift away from the fulcrum and the maximisation point of exertion. Hopefully he has done all the growing he has to do. The rest of the field were in fine nick with the exception of Dick Turpin who was sweating and on his toes.

Prior to the Champion Stakes the sweat was dripping out of Nathaniel relentlessly and his running here may have been below par as a consequence. Setting a forceful gallop over a trip short of his best did not help.

So You Think is a bruiser of a war horse and hardly typical of the colts Coolmore pursue with a stallion career in mind. These big old lumps rarely do well at stud as they so rarely match the best of the dam's facets and I will be surprised if he succeeds when his racing career is over. Nevertheless he is a class performer if just lacking that crucial bit of toe. I laid Dubai Prince for a place as he has failed to develop at all since last year.

Paddock Notes Newmarket Dewhurst Meeting 8 October 2012

Strong Suit was in superb nick for The Challenge Stakes and won with a show of class. He is sure to run well at The Breeders Cup. The fillies Chachamaidee and Elshabakiya have thrived.

Reply and Crusade from the Aiden O’Brien yard were the picks for the Middle Park and were allowed to go off at generous odds. Bapak Chinta lacks size and Caspar Netscher was starting to show the affects of a busy season.

For The Dewhurst, Most Improved did not have the wraps taken off till late but was impressive when they finally did. In so many ways his career path follows that of Delegator. With two maiden runs behind them they both ran in the Dewhurst and were both paddock picks acquitting themselves well but just lacking Group race experience. Available at 33/1 he is good value for the 2,000 Guineas next spring. Delegator thrived before The Craven and his work on the Manton Gallops precipitated a huge Ante Post plunge. I was sitting very pretty indeed until a certain Sea The Stars waltzed into the Parade Ring on Guineas Day and sent me scurrying to have a saver.

Camelot sluiced up in the Racing Post and there was a nationwide punt on him on the Tuesday prior to Doncaster. An independent bookmaker I know reported a woman coming into his shop on the Tuesday when all the O’Brien horses were still engaged, and asking for £4k on Camelot.

These days Aiden O'Brien does not like to rush his colts for the 2,000 Guineas and Camelot is far more likely to go to The Curragh for the Irish version. I think the reason for this goes back to George Washington, Footstepsinthesand and to a lesser extent Hawk Wing. When I was asked what GW looked like before his Guineas at Newmarket I said that he appeared to have been rushed to get to Newmarket. While he was fit, he was not thriving and blooming like you would want to see one having his first run of the new campaign. GW won impressively but fell apart thereafter and was beaten at the Curragh. It took till September to get him back to his peak. Footstepsinthesand never ran again after winning and Hawk Wing failed to reach the lofty ambitions held for him at Cashel. The performance at HQ and subsequent demise of St Nicholas Abbey's three year old career rather enhances the theory.

Henrythenavigator did win but was noticeably backward for his bow and won in spite of his condition and he confirmed running with New Approach at The Curragh.

As a consequence I do not believe Coolmore will rip the guts out of Camelot to get him to HQ for the first Classic. If they want to prove his speed at the mile they can always drop him back for the Sussex Stakes later in the Summer just as they did with Rip Van Winkle.

Most Improved does not have much else to fear at this point of proceedings. I believe he will take care of the Dewhurst mob and the Middle Park was a condensed affair. That only leaves the French colt Dabirsim and he will probably stay home, assuming he trains on.

Wading was the clear choice for the Rockfel and the Montjeu filly has a promising middle distance career ahead of her.

The Autumn Stakes has been won by the likes of Nayef and Nashwan in the past as well as Masked Marvel running last year. Astrology was heavily backed but failed to win. The well made Galileo colt is worth another chance to atone.