Newmarket November 2013

Friday 1^st November:    The closing of the M25 did nothing to help my journey and I missed the first two maidens. The going was very soft. The consensus of the cognoscenti was that Authenticity and Born To Reign were worth noting in the first. In the second, Pantolini, Ragged Robin, Stetchworth and Warbrook could take a race.

Before the Listed Bosra Sham Stakes, despite very mild weather they all wore the poxy full/light blanket and a full viewing was cursory. There was little to report on what I saw with the inform Cape Factor taking the spoils.

In the 6f Conditions heat the 2yo’s were once again favoured by the weights. The 3yo filly Mar Mar looked in good nick but could not concede the advantage.

The Warrens of Warwick Fillies Handicap was a strong heat and won well by the Sakhee filly Tweed. The form of the race might be useful.

Saturday 2^nd November:         The Fillies Maiden known historically as the Balaton Lodge Stakes, again divided this time but failed to highlight anything special at this stage. Angelic Air stayed on despite the ground and will improve on better going. Excellent View was plenty fit but pulled in the race and blew hard afterwards.   

In the second division Eastern Belle was fancied and made favourite but she too blew hard after.

If they made the Zetland Stakes a Listed event then they might get runners. Why they downgraded the race is a mystery. Hartnell had a facile win. He looks the part and will make a 3yo.

Majeyda is a good sort and followed up her second in the May Hill with a fine win here. She should train on and improve again. Surcingle drifted badly in the betting and the BHB really should investigate exactly who is laying these horses on the Exchanges and report back to the Betting Public. Without the Exchanges we would know what Bookmaker was doing the Laying on the racecourse. Despite moving well to post Surcingle was never going. She has a deal of scope and well bred could be a real contender next term. Hopefully nothing was amiss. With the racing delayed I drew stumps.

Newbury Saturday 26^th October 2013

The ground was very heavy and the times confirmed it was some of the worst of the season.

The maiden fillies race has produced Secret Gesture and Shirocco Star in the last couple of years. Cinnilla went off the 4/1 favorite but never showed. She is stoutly bred and should shine next term.

Lady Thyne waltzed away with the second division and a tall workmanlike sort, she should train on. Acclio was not persevered with when she could not win. She only gets a mark of 73 and this lengthy type is one to note in a Nursery.

Piping Rock had cruised in when returning from a lay off at Salisbury and showed the benefit of that run by winning in style here. He has a good action and should not be written off on faster going next spring. Although not as big as the favorite – Galiway, he has a deal of quality and it will be fascinating to report on his progress next April. Galiway has plenty of scope and will improve for this run. He seems a contender and has the breeding to back up his physique. He is a boisterous sort rather than a fractious type and his messing around beforehand is nothing to worry about.

Nicholls Canyon has progressed during the year and was in good nick. The filly Cocktail Queen has done particularly well and was in great shape for her first run in five months. Her dam – Premier Prize raced as a 5 year old and was Pattern class. I expect Cocktail Queen to stay in training and do well.

The Radley Stakes was a modest affair with the 85 rated Aqlaam Vision getting up close home. Ligeia pulled to post and in the race and was never going to get home over seven furlongs, especially on this ground. She could be worth noting dropped back in trip.

Newmarket Future Champions Day 12th October

Jockeys reported the ground to be on the soft side of good, though the times were barely slower than the previous week when the ground was reported fast. The wind was minimal and should not have affected the times of the races. Unusual.

In the Challenge Stakes Trumpet Major looked in great nick. He has had a wind op and had been off for 91 days and also had a 4lb penalty.

Great White Eagle looked the part for the Middle Park but never fired. He is a good mover and should be given a chance to atone. The winner Astaire had done well as had the third – Hot Streak who was well in his coat despite being fresh in the paddock. A couple had gone in their coats including Sudirman and Supplicant.

War Command was the clear choice in a poor renewal for the Dewhurst. He has excellent conformation but might still need a motor to go with it. At the moment I would hold fire for the Guineas and much will depend on the progress he makes in the next 6 months. A lot can happen in that time and there is no point trying to crystal ball the game. I had expected Cable Bay to come on for his Somerville Stakes showing at HQ 16 days before, but he was in a stew and had run up light. He belied his state with a solid run. Stormardal had done well but blew his handicap mark. Outstrip had gone in his coat and looked poor.

Tiger Cliff looked supreme for the Ces but was given a hapless ride by Queally who was in front miles too soon. He should step up to pattern class no problem next term.

I do not know what happened to Lightning Strike but she stayed on having appeared to be tailing off at one stage. Strange! Valonia had a thick winter coat on the way and had been trace clipped and was dull. Forget this run. Al Thakira is a handy well made sort and looked well. She endorsed Dubawi’s fine season as a stallion.

I mentioned in my last Blog that Oklahoma City seemed likely to prove best short of a mile and he was trounced in the last furlong of the 8f Autumn Stakes. Kingston Hill was very backward at Newbury despite winning and had come on a ton for the run. God Willing was still not fully fit last time and he was in good nick for a respectable effort. Truth or Dare was preferred of the Hannon pair and Mount Logan looked tucked up and pulled to post.

Chapter Seven is still going the right way and can improve again.

Newmarket 5^th October 2013

Good weather and fast ground with a minimal tail wind.

In the £300k Tattersalls Fillies there was not much to choose between Wedding Ring, Night Song and Zawiyah. Experience held the call with the former taking the spoils. Night Song was never in the hunt. Zawiyah is sprint bred and could be one to note in fillies events next year. In July, I marked Manderley down for a nursery and she blew a handicap mark of 76 in finishing second. Mind you, she did cop £66k in place money which looks the better of the bargain. She was going in her coat but was otherwise fine.

Oklahoma City took the £500k colt’s version and he was well suited by the drop back in trip, having contested the one mile Beresford Stakes just 6 days before. He is a strong stocky sort and more of a sprinter than a miler. Extremity had done well but failed to show. Currently 82 he should not go up much. Postponed impressed me at the July Meeting and he looked much more a racehorse with the puppy fat off. He now looks more like his sire Dubawi and should make a nice 3yo. Again, he blew a mark of 85 but did cop £110k in the process

The horses for the 8f maiden contained plenty of backward types. Three that will come on hugely for the run include the Galileo colt– Battersea trained by Roger Varian; he is a half brother to Gitano Hernando who won the big Group One at Kranji Singapore. Battersea looks sure to figure in middle distance events next term. Dance of Heroes – trained by Jeremy Noseda is a Danehill Dancer out of Helena Moloney who was placed in a 11f Listed race for John Oxx. Middle distances beckon for the youth. Protected, trained by Richard Hannon was possibly the most backward of the lot and is a good sort.

Newmarket Autumn Notes

Three days of superb weather and perfect fast racing ground, together with excellent cards ensured British Racing at its best. There seemed to be no discernible bias in the draw with the wind minimal.

Thursday:       

Plenty of future staying types in the 8f maiden. Kings Land and Rainbow Rock were noticeably backward and should come on the most for the run.

Astonishing absolutely floated to post and came back in a similarly impressive fashion. A joy to watch. None of the paddock wallahs liked Phiz but I think she might have a motor. She drifted like a barge in the betting market and ran accordingly. She could prefer more give.

There was money for Championship in the Tattersall Stakes but he needed the run after his lay off.

Sabor A Triunfo failed to get home over 2 miles and the filly had Group One form on the All Weather in Chile. She is with Ed Dunlop who has a superb track record with fillies and mares.

Ladyship ran a career best and is on top of her game. She could be in line for more Black Type.

Friday:

Soft Falling Rain impressed at Newbury and was sharper for the run. He is worth a crack at the Queen Elizabeth.

Rizeena was very much on her toes and did not convince as before. Chriselliam had done well.

Baarez looks a three year old in the making and being by Kentucky Derby second - Hard Spun - will always be worth noting on the All Weather. If he were mine I would point him at the Kentucky Derby. Gothic is a big lengthy sort typically favoured by Highclere. Very much having a kind introduction, he pleased connections no end. Ganges was the most backward and ran well despite. He will improve accordingly.

Morpheus was heavily backed but needed the race.

Saturday:

Berkshire has grown a deal and seemed more like a 4yo never mind a 3yo. He ran green and was ‘climbing’ in the race. He has a ‘wall eye’ and does not look the full shilling. Temperament will always be a factor and I remain to be convinced.

Vorda is a handy well made sort who should handle the tight Breeders Cup track no problem. I would need to see her next Spring before I commit for the Guineas.

Joyeuse looked to be going the right way at Salisbury but pulled here and failed to show. Disappointing.

I put up Sky Lantern for the 1,000 Guineas in the Spring and she has been a joy to follow. She looked great despite going a bit in her coat. Having run so well at Ascot at the Royal Meeting, she must surely go for the Champion Stakes.

The question of horses going in their coat is one open to debate. The inference is that once horses start to get their winter coat in the autumn they must inevitably start to lose their form. Briefly in my view, if they look well I still want to be with them even if they are getting their new coat. If they look dull then no.

Elusive Kate looked great but disappointed again. She has been very much underrated, having won a Group One at 2, 3 and 4 years of age. Apart from Bosra Sham I cannot think of any other fillies to have done so in recent times. One for the Stats Boys. If you can think of any others, please let me know.

Racing Value An Incredible 51% ROI This Season

Last week I reported how a horse had let down Racing Value for a huge 275/1 treble despite looking all over the winner.

So what happens is the same horse – Hi Filwah - runs a few days later – last Friday as it happens.

My mate rings me up. “I see that dog of yours is running today”

“ Dog?? Its Evens with Corals. Care for an Even Monkey? I enquire”

“ You can have a Grand if you like”. “No Says I. I don’t want your better half giving me grief when it wins (she's a lovely girl, far too good for him and I would hate to upset her)”

Anyway, Hi Filwah is never out of second gear to win in a canter and rub salt into the wounds. That 275 Points would have Changed Lives I assure you.

Even worse, as Racing Value Clients will testify, all week we keep get getting chinned - more than going 10 Rounds with Mike Tyson.

On Tuesday James Doyle comes off the rail and goes the scenic route round West Sussex before dropping his hands and costing us the Place Single and Treble on Waterclock and 18 Points.

Thanks James, Thanks a Lot !!! Want a job with Prince Khaled?

Then, even more horses join the the Next Time Up Club – Horses I tip that get beat and then win next time up. I tipped up Dragon City at 25/1 EW and see it finish tailed off last. It goes in last week 7/2>9/4. I am too embarrassed to put it up again.

Furthermore, one of the few times we have gone 10 Points Win this season was on La Collina to win a 4 runner race at 5/1 at Naas. I saw the filly at Newmarket before the Sun Chariot and knew she was still capable. She then ran a great race over 7 furlongs in the Gladness Stakes on her first run back in the Spring. She could not get past a 33/1 shot when we punt her that day at Naas where nothing has won since.

On Saturday she takes the Group One Matron Stakes at 33/1 beating the best Fillies in training. I am stunned.

All week we are backing Richard Hannon horses and watch them run below par. I ring my mate in the yard only for him to tell me that that the vaccinations they had the previous week have knocked the youngsters sideways.

We then lump on Figure of Speech at Kempton on the Saturday – only to see the Hannon trained Brown Sugar turn in a career best and beat my darling a short head at 6/1 !! It costs Racing Value Clients 42 Points.

Never mind, my mate in Newmarket who is a Jockey's Agent confirms that a horse I have been keeping an eye on will go in at Wolver in the evening. Glanely cops for Racing Value Clients at 8/1>5/1. Aye Aye !!

Any way, you can't keep a Good Team down and we Bomb Bet365 (and others) with Quiz Mistress at 10/1 on Tuesday to cop 60 Points and keep Racing Value an unbelievable 51% in Profit this Flat Season. That despite a myriad of knock backs.

Alex Bird, the great Professional Punter was happy with 5% Profit on Turnover.

We are doing Ten Times that at Racing Value !!!!

Don't just Watch our Results. Join Us !!!!

My Racing Value Service is well ahead for the 2013 Turf Season and showing superb profits with losing runs the smallest of any service available.

However profits would have been incredible if some of the horses had gone in on the day we tipped them. Many got beat and then won next time up often in tougher races or at much shorter odds making tipping them uneconomic.

Just this week Glenard 11/1 Gabriels Lad 6/1 Hoku and Harbinger Lass. Manalapan is another to win recently at the Curragh at 7/1. Having lost twice on the horse it travels sweetly to score. Bantam 5/1 Jwala 16/1 Sartorialist 20/1 Silver Lime 7/1 Zain Zone 10/1>4/1 Constantine 3/1 Dibayani 7/2 Evangeliste A Star is Born Morpheus Saucy Minx Estifzaaz Regal Silk etc etc etc are just some examples this term.

Not to mention our Ante Post plunge on Toronado for the 2,000 Guineas!!

It has been driving me mad but if nothing else it proves that I can come up with consistently live horses.

Toronado Official Champion 3 Year Old

Toronado has officially usurped Dawn Approach at the top of the three-year-old tree after being awarded a rating of 126 following his narrow verdict in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood last week.

Dawn Approach, who had beaten his old rival in both the 2000 Guineas and St James's Palace Stakes, headed into the mile showdown on a mark of 124 with Richard Hannon's Toronado rated just 1lb behind on 123.

However, those positions have now switched with British Horseracing Authority handicapper Dominic Gardiner-Hill putting Toronado up 3lb to 126 while Dawn Approach has risen 1lb to 125.

In his official BHA blog, Gardiner-Hill said: "Rated the best two three-year-olds in the world with pre-race ratings of 124 (Dawn Approach) and 123 (Toronado) following their tremendous scrap in the St James's Palace at Royal Ascot, the pair confirmed those positions but it is now Richard Hannon's colt who sits on top of the pile with a new mark of 126, whilst Dawn Approach is at his girth with a new mark of 125.

"I have taken the view that third placed Declaration of War has reproduced his Eclipse running of 120 and used him as the guide to the level of the Sussex - it is interesting to see that some of my international colleagues have taken the view that Aidan O'Brien's colt has only run up to the 118 it was generally acknowledged that he had produced when winning the Queen Anne and, accordingly, have lower figures on the two three-year-olds.

"I find it difficult to support that view as I felt that Declaration of War won at Royal Ascot despite not getting the clearest of runs and had the scope to improve on the figure as the season progressed - as he appeared to in the Eclipse, and the fact that he beat Trade Storm (pre-race 115, ran to 110) and Gregorian (115 and 107) a lot further than he did in the Queen Anne suggest to me that there is little reason to suggest that he hasn't run to 120 at Goodwood.

"Would I expect Toronado to confirm the form in the event of a fourth meeting between the pair? There is little doubt that he benefitted from a Richard Hughes master class on the Downs, mugging his old adversary wide and on the line - there is so little between the pair at present that I for one could not predict with any confidence the result of any future meetings!"

Gardiner-Hill was also impressed with the Hannon-trained Montiridge who won the Group Three Thoroughbred Stakes, putting him up to 115 while stablemate Wentworth is now on a mark of 106 after winning the Betfred Mile, a hike of 7lb.

2013 Turf Season Profit Now 327 Points and 51% ROI

I said that my Turf Season would start on 1st May. We are now at the Half Way Stage.

My Betting Service is showing a Net Profit of 327 Points and 51% on Stakes so far this Season. (this includes Elusive Kate which will be added to the chart)

As I advise keeping a Reserve of 200 Points this is 163% on the Total Investment.

Employing just £10 a Point you would be £3,270 up in just 3 Months and your stake would now be worth £5,270. You will not get that in a Building Society !!! Not only that but the Longest Losing Sequence was only a miserly 38 Points (equal to 7 Bets).

This is at Bookmaker Odds and better odds were always available on the Exchanges.

Tipping is much harder than Betting and I have made mistakes. I expect the experience gained to reflect in an enhanced Strike Rate and Overall Profits from now on.

PAY PAY BET 365. We Land Our 100/1 BIG STING !!!!

I am a big fan of Ektihaam and always have been. Lets hope he stays on his feet this time and shows his potential.

Newmarket July Meeting Paddock Notes

Hot weather and firm ground for the three days. 6mm was added on the Thursday and Friday evenings but although the horses were taking the top off the surface it did not stop course records being set.

Thursday 11^th July:

Feel Like Dancing has done well since being noted in the Blog at Newbury. Dare To Achieve has made great strides but ran too free. Trainer Willie Haggas was not happy with the ride from Hughes. Jathabah had made good progress at Newbury before the Ballymacoll and confirmed it with a bold display here.

I noted Anjaal in my Guineas Blog and he has done well and took the July Stakes. Hannon was talking the Dewhurst afterwards – ambitious stuff. Figure of Speech is a good sort who still carried condition. He may have been unlucky. Intermath should go well in Nursery’s.

Universal looked very fit and well as usual and got a soft lead. Wigmore Hall had been very sick after his run in May and it reflected here as he had lost muscle tone.

The Johnston trained Maputo looked Group material and he bolted up. Tarikhi was the part again but will not achieve Group status if he continues to pull too hard. This needs to be sorted or he will never fulfil his potential. Red Avenger confirmed Blog inclusion by finishing second in this top handicap.

Oriel looked fine but disappointed. Qawaasem is a well made sort typical of the stamp favoured by Hamdan. She will progress. Valonia was only 5,500 Guineas and looks a steal at that price. This was no fluke. Amnesia was 180,000 Guineas and should go some way to contributing to the fee. Manderley is better than her running and could be Nursery material.

Montiridge was touted as an Irish Guineas contender earlier in the Spring and improving at a rate, will step up from this Listed win. Ashdan was no match but turned out in excellent nick.

Friday 12^th July:

Rizeena looked to have grown and strengthened but was fretful in the pre parade and main paddocks and was led by 2 lads. The 3lb penalty did not help and hopefully she will return and reflect her potential.

Elusive Kate has come of age and was the pick for the Falmouth. Last year Giofra was the pick for this race but not this time. Sky Lantern was in perfect order but just gave best on looks to the older horse.

Ninjago is putting on condition and may prefer a return to Ascot. Barracuda Boy may have finished down the field but I refuse to write him off. He repeatedly took the eye. The form of his York third was fully franked here.

In the Maiden the favourite True Story was in supreme condition and waltzed up. Some typical backward sorts with loads of potential include Mantonize, Postponed, Good Value and Rock 'N' Roll Star.

Vermont looked good and was touted but failed to shine. I assume Luca is going the handicap route. A definite project. Phaenomena and Gold Medal are now ready for handicaps and should get 78 and 70 respectively. Toast of The Town was in good order but did not stretch to post.

Saturday 13^th July:

Jammy Guest was put up 12lb for his Jersey effort which scuppered him here. He is more imposing now and he too may do better on an easier surface.

Nothing stood out for the Group 2 Superlative Stakes and I would give Washaar another chance.

Es Que Love franked Blog confidence with another bold display. He lost a shoe at Ascot when running off 96 and missing me the punt. He was touched off here off a mark of 101. My old mucker Burwaaz was in good trim and ran a cracking race to finish seventh. He is now on 97 and could be a big number in one of the top sprint handicaps.

Gale Force Ten was the pick for the July Stakes here last year and being by Oasis Dream was negated by the soft ground for most of the season. As soon as he got decent ground he ran a corker in the Middle Park. Thereafter I had him marked for the July Cup. Solid displays in the French and Irish Guineas and a win in the Jersey only confirmed my confidence in him following the same path as Mozart in securing the Sprint Title. He fulfilled my every wish for him in the paddock and I could not be more happy. With Society Rock never having performed at HQ and Sole Power best at 5f that left only Lethal Force to take. However just like Toronado I was left wondering just what had had happened.

I dare say something will emerge but nothing will ease the feeling of being badly winded by the defeat. I went home in a daze.

PAY PAY VICTOR !!! - Es Que Love  5th Place for the Each Way 40/1 Bet

Sky Lantern W6/1 (advised) is our Biggest Bet of the Day

Tarikhi 2nd 75/1 EW is the Only Bet advised Thursday

Chigun lets us down for a Life Changing 200/1 Treble but Gale Force Ten W5/1 and Rizeena W13/2 score Solid Profits.

Newbury Notes

Friday 17^th May

Buick seemed intent on giving GM Hopkins an easy intro but he ran well to finish beaten a length. A strong stocky type, he carried condition.

A fair field for the Listed Swettenham Stud Stakes. The Lark looked in need of the run despite going off @ 5/2 . She will thrive stepping up in trip.

They were screaming Oriel as Hannon’s Albany filly and a well made sort she was the pick. Hughes got no run and she is a deal better.

Ninjago looked ok but was a crazy priced favourite. I have seen Zanetto twice and enough to form a firm view but he seemed to have come on a ton in the intervening fortnight and there was heavy support for him in the markets. Unlike the fav he was in the perfect position on a day where it paid to be prominent on the rail. The two fillies - City Girl and Sound of Guns have trained on. Heavy Metal like so many Mark Johnston’s looked in fine trim but tailed off.

In the 11f handicap most were in good nick but a few finished well beat – a surprising feature in a number of races over the two days.

Saturday 18^th May

A very strong field for the 10f maiden. Remote was well touted for his Pontefract maiden. Turned out in prime nick he fairly flew away. I liked Dare To Achieve last term and he has developed into a Group contender. There were many to like and the Ed Dunlop filly Bantam could be one to go through the ranks.

Willing Foe was turned out very fit and well despite getting a little warm. Saeed Bin Suroor was obviously keen to get the Godolphin machine on the road. Saint Hillary is a filly to note if the Muir stable hits form.

Kitten On The Run is an imposing workmanlike colt from Italy and Luca should be able to map a programme – including overseas, for this likeable sort. Hillstar is a handy close coupled sort who should continue to thrive. Tarikhi tailed off despite looking a million dollars. Hopefully he will return. Spillway is another good sort who should go the right way.

Declaration Of War was made a short priced favourite and is a top class colt on looks though a bit dull in his coat. Farhh returned fit and well and confirmed his well being. Cityscape looked dreadful. Aljamaaheer has done well. Fencing was light and Gosden will always struggle to keep condition on him.

The two divisions of the 7f Maidens were modest. Tawtheeq, Czech It Out and Glanely looked good and will improve again.

Ascot 1^st May 2013

Some better weather for a change.

In the 2yo Condition heat the first two – Anticipated and Justice Day showed a good turn of foot. It will be worth sticking with Montaigne.

I liked Fencing last term and he has been gelded. It has been the making of him and he was a class above these.

Estimate looked a million dollars and justified support. Reported to have worked well she did not distance herself from the placed horses but will improve again.

Ninjago has done well and will come on again for the run. Ahern and Snow King were in prime condition but ran poorly and took the last two places.

Newmarket Saturday 4^th May 2013

A strong tail and ¾ across wind which favoured the front runners.

I did not watch the Jockey Club Stakes but Noble Mission failed to do it. Wigmore Hall gave 5lb to the principals and at 6 years of age has never looked stronger. Not one to write off. Universal and Dandino looked particularly fit and well.

A rainstorm developed before the 2,000 Guineas which made proper viewing impossible.

Toronado and Dawn Approach were available in the pre parade. Toronado was at peak pitch. Dawn Approach is clearly a Group One colt, but then we knew that after the Coventry. Bolger invariably has then trained to the minute but on this day the colt was likely to come on for the run.

I do not know what happened to Toronado but Richard Hughes said on the cover of the Racing Post that he was possibly the best he has ever ridden. Having banged on about the horse since last Summer I felt my judgement fully vindicated.

When the two horses came there travelling three furlongs out I felt we were in for a truly great race. One you remember in the years and decades to come. But just as the contest was starting to develop Toronado just fell way. If he had finished a decent second that would have been it but to finish out of the frame dead on his feet was profoundly disappointing. Nobody died I suppose but it did not stop me from feeling shell shocked.

Centurius must have been really backward when taking his maiden a couple of weeks earlier and still in need of it ran a very promising race. He will suit to stepping up in trip again.

Glean was reported to not have grown at Kempton but although small in stature has definitely trained on to my eye and is up to Listed class. There is a lot of Ravens Pass about him. Red Avenger was still short of a run and will come on again. Discernable is a useful filly for Mark Johnston.

Newmarket Sunday 5^th May 2013

A quality line up for the 12f Handicap. Stencive was noted last term and was in good shape. No Heretic and Silver Lime will improve for the race.

Chigun has done really well and should have a good campaign. She was touched off by Dank who is an impressive type and still to get her summer coat. Thistle Bird and Bana Wu have trained on.

Gabriels Lad will come on for the run and ran a fine race in the circumstances in the sprint handicap.

The 1,000 Guineas was a quality renewal.

Sky Lantern was in great shape and confirmed Blog confidence. What A Name and Just The Judge looked well up to par. Hot Snap had done well since the Nell Gwyn but was not right in her coat. Hopefully she will be back when ready.

The 2yo maiden was a warm heat.

Windfast is as good a 2yo as you are likely to see at this stage of the campaign. He impressed me in the pre parade, main paddock, to post and on the way back. I dare say APOB and JB will send over decent juveniles from Ireland for the Coventry but Windfast must be included in calculations. Richard Hannon’s Anjaal was touted as Ascot material. He is a good sort along with Crowdmania. William Haggas has an obsession for leaving blankets on for as long as possible but Lady Nouf looked good before being touched off by the likeable Talent. Madame Defarge sweated up a deal late on but could be a likely outsider for the Oaks. She has plenty of scope for improvement.

Salutation has been gelded and it should be most helpful this season. Pure Excellence could frame in a Listed event for Fillies.

Handicap Horses I will be keeping an eye on – with their current Handicap Marks - Es Que Love 100 The Gatling Boy 82 Excellent Result 80 Dream Tune 92 Border Legend 86 Correspondent 92 Ribaat 99 Glenard 78 Amberley Heights 78 Professor 98 Mystical Sapphire 82

The only horse I have advised Ante Post is Toronado for the 2,000 Guineas. Visit my Blog and you will see that I have been with him from the very start when his price was 50/1, then 33/1 and all the way down to a current price of 9/4. But dont forget my very positive Blog note for Van Der Neer. At a present price of 33/1 he has be included each way. I could not support Toronado without Van Der Meer running for me also.

Craven and Greenham Paddock Notes

Newmarket Wed 17^th April

The weather was mild with a headwind that blew directly down the track and got progressively stronger as the afternoon drew on. The times of the later races are therefore that much better in comparison, especially Hot Snap. The going which had started as Good to Soft was quickly changed to Good.

As is usual the case, many horses wore the full light blanket making viewing difficult. This is unnecessary as all the relevant studies confirm that horses are perfectly comfortable down to an

ambient temperature of 5 degrees standing still as their natural coats offer them a considerable protection against the elements. As the horses are on the move the use of such blankets is futile. If wind chill were to drop the effective temperature below 5 degrees then a warmer half blanket to keep vital organs protected – might be warranted. Otherwise these full covers are just a pathetic fashion.

It should be borne in mind that not all the best horses appear at the Craven and that the Guineas Meeting is probably stronger in talent. But as the man said - you have to start somewhere.

Vodka Time probably did not handle the track at Kempton and put his best foot forward. He is the best of David Evans’ juveniles and talk of Ascot is not fanciful.

Not much in the Tattersalls Million Sprint. Amberley Heights would be interesting back in handicaps.

In the Free Handicap Anna’s Pearl looked well but placing could be an issue.

Hot Snap looked fit and well and fairly bolted up in the Nell Gwyn. Her handicap and speed figures cannot be faulted. A tall lengthy sort she did not knock me over and warrants a second inspection before I form a firm opinion. Richard Hannon had said that Sky Lantern had done really well and I would second the assertion. Backward in her coat and fractious and on her toes she is genuine Group One material. Naturally I want to see her calmer and blooming before I risk a wager but if things go well it would not surprise me if she turned the tables. She might be a price on the day. Nargys and Reyaadah have stepped up but ran below par.

Race and Status looked to have progressed but confirmed his trainers warning that he would need the run. The winner Intello has quality but may lack scope.

The 10 furlong maiden has thrown up some decent sorts down the years and the renewal is up to scratch. Easily the most impressive is Demonic who holds a Dante and could well make the line up if appearance counts. Others to follow include Improvisation who I noted last year and Morpheus – a half brother to Frankel. Samawi tailed off but was backward and worth another look.

I liked Professor last term and he is going the right way.

Newmarket Thursday 18^th April

Rizeena was the pick of the maiden 2yo fillies. In need of the run she blew the start and then ran green before finishing well.

Plenty of fair sorts for the Wood Ditton but nothing in particular. The one to take away is Gerrards Cross who wobbled like a Chivers jelly in the prelims but surprisingly raced in contention till the distance before blowing up. The winner Ajraam was still a bit backward and will come on.

Despite negative trainer comments Ghurair was the pick and disappointed. The Gatling Boy needed the run. Off a mark of 82 he might drop a couple and will be worth noting in handicaps. A Star in My Eye can take a maiden up North.

Followers of my Blog will know of my enduring support for Toronado since his first outing. He has made up into a fine sort and looked the proverbial million dollars. More than that his temperament is a joy to behold. While the winds howled and the rains lashed down he took it all in his stride and barely turned a hair. He raced keenly with ears pricked and revealed a real willing to go and take his race. In the winners enclosure he was cool and calm just intelligently taking it all in. He is still the one for me.

Dundonnell was the subject of negative trainer reports. He has trained on though not as fit as the winner. More disconcertingly he was led around the pre parade by a stable hack and then ponied to start early. He will come on but still has some way to go.

Bonfire has had his nuts removed. Apparently both of them had not dropped, hence his discomfort. He still looks a screw. On his toes throughout in the paddock he pulled to post. Never put in the race effectively, he is still a good sort and hopefully he will begin to settle as time goes by but a watching brief is still needed. All of the contestants for the Sefton were geldings including Stipulate who I still like but ridden with far too much use – again!! Will somebody please give him a jockey –Please!!! He was in need of a run, by the way.

In the Fillies Maiden Call Ahead will come on for the run and ran green. Saucy Minx will progress.

In the handicap Glenard was fancied but I thought he was still short of a run.

Newbury Friday 19^th April

Before the Bridget Maiden At a Clip was reported to have worked well and was backed. The pick - she ran short. Second in was the winner Pavlovsk. She appeared stuffy and blew hard afterwards.

I liked Contributor a lot last season and he has gone the right way. He will progress. Cap O Rushes has made up but he pulled to post and in the race. He may need gelding.

The 7furlong handicap often throws up some good horses. Ribaat and Baltic Knight should prove worth following. The former ran free and will suit better ground.

Steventon Star was the pick of the 2yo colts.

Banoffee was easily the preferred for the 10f Fillies Maiden but was still short of peak fitness. She will improve again. Just One Kiss and Toast of the Town should not be forgotten.

Newbury Saturday 20^th April

Speaking to some of the other paddock lads I think I was the only one who thought Noble Mission short of a gallop. Despite hacking for most of the straight I felt it was only a matter of time till he blew up. Inside the final furlong all the indications started to sprout and he failed to get home.

Everyone said he had spewed it. I feel he blew up and that was that. Noble Mission has done well in the interim and I will rate him accordingly. In no way was the filly Quiz Mistress outshone by the colts.

Es Que Love has won over a mile on the Polytrack but ran short here. Perhaps one of those fat juicy Ascot handicaps over 7f could be a clue. I noted Border Legend last year. He has been gelded and might be worth an interest if showing something. Dream Tune has gone the right way.

I have always been a fan of Rosdhu Queen and she has strengthened again this Spring. Maureen has improved but I prefer Sky Lantern from the yard.

Olympic Glory has made up into a Group One 3yo and carried condition. He will progress. Moohaajim has not grown much but is still ok. He seemed the fittest but blew the hardest as they walked back in. Correspondent has done well.

I think all of Newmarket was on Kyllachy Rise and his defeat engendered groans echoing all the way back to HQ. A quality sort he will prove the best of these. I liked Princes Trust who was not tuned up and Bold Sniper. Otherwise plenty of backward types with scope but I would prefer to have another look once the puppy fat has come off and we can really see what is left.

Excellent Result looked in superb trim but once again dropped away on the soft ground. He should not get more than a mark of 80 and I will form a queue on better going. Feel Like Dancing and Dragon City have plenty of scope for improvement. So too Squire Osbaldeston who was in need of the run and a lay at the price.

After 4 days running up and down stairs trying to catch this lot I felt I deserved a beer. A gallon if Toronado takes the Guineas!!

Toronado has developed into a Prince of a horse with the most wonderful temperament to match. I will do a Craven /Greenham Blog on Monday.

Van Der Neer impressed yesterday. Expected to need the run, he will improve a stone for the outing and will also benefit from moving back up in trip. The stats also suggest he will be better suited to a faster turf track rather than the AW. He is progressive.

Toronado impresses in away-day at Kempton 

RICHARD HANNON sent eight horses to Kempton this morning for a full-scale workout around the Polytrack, and the report that he received back from Richard jnr had the boss bubbling with enthusiasm as the new Flat season gets ever closer.

He said: "Toronado worked particularly well with Havana Gold and Law Enforcement, and he has done really well through the winter. He has lengthened and filled out in all the right places, and he has grown into a lovely horse.

"He is by High Chaparral, but John Magnier is also familiar with the distaff side of the colt's pedigree, and when we met in Barbados in January he told me that a mile and a half would not be a problem."

The unbeaten Toronado is a 16-1 chance to give the boss his first Derby triumph at Epsom in June, and Richard added:"We are in the fortunate position of having a fistful of smart three-year-olds to go to war with, and my biggest problem is trying to keep them apart for the trials.

"I would think that Toronado will head to Newmarket for the Craven Stakes, Havana Gold could also go to HQ for the Free Handicap, while Olympic Glory, who has also thrived during the winter and moved beautifully when we worked him earlier in the week, would likely reappear in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury.

Toronado Guineas Campaign on Target

Toronado Guineas Campaign on Target

It was interesting that the Richard Hannon camp should be nominating Toronado as their Number One Classic colt.
On their website on March 9th they said
"The unbeaten Toronado, surely another bargain buy at 55,000 Euros at Deauville, is progressing along nicely for the Coriolan Links Partnership, and he could well take in the 2000 Guineas along the way. He is obviously our number one, having looked the part last season and received rave reviews from Richard Hughes, who believes that he will never have a better chance of riding the winner of the greatest Flat race in the world."

This follows an earlier report"Hannon is hoping that the unbeaten Toronado, winner of three races last year culminating in the Group Two Champagne Stakes at Doncaster in September, may be able to put that record straight on June 1. "We will be looking at the Investec Derby for Toronado after he has run in one of the Guineas, but we have not decided which one he will go for at the moment," said Richard Hannon junior, assistant to his father. He is in great form and he has done very well over the winter so we are very pleased with him - we always thought he would make a lovely three-year-old." Hannon senior has had nine runners in the Derby, the first of them in 1973 and his best placing so far has been sixth with Gran Alba in 1989. Toronado is priced at 14/1 by Coral to improve on that record. Richard Hannon junior continued: "We have always liked him from the time he went and won his maiden at Newbury and he continued to improve all year. "In a couple of races last year, they did not go very fast early and he probably did not look as good as he could have done. "It's exciting for the team as we have not had many Derby runners and we are looking forward to it."
Anybody following my Blog will know that we have been with this colt from the start and that he is the only Ante Post Bet I have put up for the 2,000 Guineas @ 50/1 and 33/1.
It is almost certain that he will go for the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas following colts like Royal Palace Sir Ivor Nijinsky Mill Reef  Sea The Stars Camelot who have all gone on to Derby success have taken in the Rowley Mile. I cannot believe that he will go to The Curragh for their 2,000 being only 2 weeks away from Epsom and risking possible dodgy going.
As yet I have not put him up for the Derby but will be happy to take a shorter price once I am certain he has the makings of a Derby horse.