Some Spring Paddock Notes

The forecast for the week was rain but racegoers were pretty lucky and apart from the odd shower it remained dry. The Craven was a bit windy and many of the horses had light blankets which made paddock viewing difficult. The notes are therefore not as detailed and extensive as I would have liked.

Newmarket Wed 18^th April 2012

In the Alex Scott Maiden many had blankets removed late. The winner Cogito was the pick.

Many of Charles Hills entries during the week needed the run and Balty Boys was surprisingly unfit given the prize money on offer. He has trained on. Luca Cumani's Out Do was the most backward of the field and has plenty of potential. He can go the handicap route and is one to follow.

I bet Bannock who looked in tremendous nick but he could not quite concede the winner 10lbs. Having proved he gets 7f his options are widened.

I followed that up with a punt on Starscope in the Nell Gwyn. The only horse in the prelims she was a blatant not off and would have won had Buick put her in the race. She will do better over a longer trip.

Stipulate has done really well and took the Fielden despite being the most backward. He should thrive. Producer was noted for the Horris Hill last October and he has done well and in need of the run.

Shantaram was well touted for the 10f maiden and was considered by some as the Banker of the week. Given a woeful ride by Buick and ceding a 3L start he looks a contender and will be better on a flat track. Model Pupil was noticeably backward and will improve a deal. His breeding indicates a step up in trip.

Newmarket Thurs 19^th April 2012.

Tassel was made a hot favourite for the 2yo fillies maiden. Although very fit she is only compact.

The Wood Ditton was probably better than average. I did not get a proper look at the winner but the next 6 home should all win and I would add Tenure to the mix.

In The Tattersalls Million, Bin Suroor's Handsome Man came into the race with a mark of just 80. Beaten 32 lengths won't add to that and he can be noted in a handicap.

Trumpet Major scooted home in the Craven to earn a decent figure. A handy sort he looked very fit but did not satisfy every purist and one senior judge actually laid him for a place.

I have seen Twice Over look a lot better and he was worth opposing.

Newbury Friday 20^th April 2012.

The ground was very heavy and the going stick reading of 4.6 was one of the lowest I can remember. The form should be treated with a large degree of caution.

The 2yo event was inconclusive and a few will sharpen up for the run. Quite often it is better to form an opinion on the second run once the puppy fat has come off and you can see what is left underneath.

The Dubai Duty Free handicap for 3yo's over 7f is usually a good contest with winners emerging. The front two in the market were like chalk and cheese. The winner Gregorian is a lengthy cadillac of a colt who looked particularly fit and well while the hot favourite Aljamaaheer is a stocky close coupled power block of a colt who also was really fit and well. Both are nice. The first couple of furlongs were run at a snail's pace and while the winner won on merit, the overall form is highly suspect. Usain Colt and Red Quartet were others to take the eye.

The Bridget Maiden was won by a wide margin winner but my choice Manaar did not go a yard.

The Whitley Stud Maiden produced the Oaks winner Dancing Rain last year and the second division looked the stronger. Inchina was mentioned last fall in my blog and having done well she went of the 2/1 favourite. She seemed to be going clear but then got stuck in the mud. She remains one to follow along with the Cumani trained Require.

I did not have Ektihaam much behind Most Improved when I saw him before the Dewhurst. Drifting from 3/1 to 10/1 that day something was clearly not right and he never figured in the race. He was turned out looking fit and well and confirmed paddock synopsis with a decent win over Wrotham Heath. The latter was in fine nick but ran a bit free early on which did not help in the ground.

Saturday 21^st April 2012

Frankel's half brother - Noble Mission looked on good terms and won well. Captain Cat, Dream Tune, Ibtihaj and Seventh Sign should come on for the run.

Arctic Cosmos looks a Group One contender this term but stopped to nothing in the race. Hopefully nothing was amiss.

All the paddock purists were on Moonstone Magic to a man and she confirmed confidence in style in the Fred Darling. Despite stable misgivings about the going the Lowther winner Best Terms was allowed to run. She may not have grown much during the Winter but has done really well and she should go on from here.

Bronterre carried Hannon confidence for the Greenham but failed to pick up. I thought he looked long backed and weak before the Dewhurst but he has strengthened a deal and will have a fine summer.

Top Offer was allowed to parade before the Greenham. I did not see him last term but he is a fine sort. He seemed tight enough on his quarters but could still lose a few pounds around the belly. There will be few better looking horses before the 2,000.

Fury walked short in his off rear and tends to put that hind out a bit. Maybe something was hurting last season to cause his fall off in form. It did not seem to hinder him in the Spring Cup.

Henry Cecil's Touch Gold was the preferred for the Bathwick Maiden and must surely get a decent handicap mark. Rule Book was noticeably backward and did well to finish fifth.

Forest Row was another inflicted with the cursed full blanket but I was able to view when without and he has done really well since last year and should have a successful campaign. I was tipped up Border Legend in the same race but he was in need of the run. A classy sort with a deal of scope he looks Ascot material. The second Lucanin was very green indeed before and during the heat. He will come on for the experience.

To Hedge Or Not To Hedge?

Readers of my website and blog will know I have been consistently with Most Improved and Discourse through the Winter. With MI now down to around 9/2 on Betfair, those who have the 40 and 33s and wish to hedge should do so now. A victory in the Craven has already been factored into the price.

It is a fact that the big bookmakers are known to have their card marked by certain stables – Ladbrokes are best for Coolmore for example. For Godolphin, Coral have always been well informed and it is interesting that they are now ducking Discourse and are lowest @ 6/1. It is still 11bf for those who have yet to take a single.

Beaten Up

One horse I forgot to mention in my blog of 1^st November was Beaten Up. I backed  Al Kazeem at around 7/2 in the morning for the St Simon Stakes as I did not fancy Mohedian Lady but had to change my position after taking a look at Beaten Up. I thought he had a lot to make up having only won an 85 Rated Stakes at Doncaster but I was knocked out when he finally came into the paddock.  A fine rangy sort although he is a gelding he can make his mark in top company. He has already been pitched in at the deep end to contest the Dubai Classic on Saturday. He will probably be best over a longer trip and there is no guarantee of any pace but I am praying for a bold show.

Autumn Paddock Notes

Newbury 22 October 2011

Estrella was just the pick of a modest bunch for the 2yo Fillies Maiden and she made her experience tell. By Authorized out of the Noseda trained Wannabe Grand she should improve a deal over the Winter.

A fair field for the Horris Hill with Producer looking to have the most potential for 2012. However he blew a mark of 88 in finishing fourth.

The Radley Stakes was a poor affair with top rated Pimpernel confirming Rockfel form.

Pivotman trained by Amanda Perrett, had beaten Carlton House as a juvenile and ran a fine second here in the Class 2 Handicap. By Pivotal, both his wins have been on soft and this progressive sort must he be noted in the top handicaps next term with any cut in the ground.

Inchina trained by Roger Charlton, would have been the paddock preferred for the Radley had she gone there instead of the maiden. By Montjeu out of Incheni who won a Listed event here over ten furlongs, Inchina has a deal of quality and should make Pattern Class in 2012.

Ascot 15 October 2011

Deacon Blues was close to going over the top before winning at Newbury in July and I was looking forward to seeing how he had fared in the interim. As it happened he had put on condition and was in the rudest of health and his winning reflected it. Moonlight Cloud is not big but is an athlete with a deal of quality. She failed to show on this occasion and hopefully will be kept in training.

Dancing Rain looked great before the Champion Fillies and Mares and won for a bold ride by Murtagh.

My blog on Frankel has fairly held up since writing back in December and he confirmed his Champion status. My confidence about him staying has been enhanced since then. After the Greenham it took him to the 12 furlong mark to pull up and on this occasion again he kept going after the race till he was nearly at Swinley Bottom. Staying 10 furlongs next year will be a walk in the park though it seems unlikely that he will be ventured over the Championship Distance of 12 furlongs. A shame!

In the paddock he was turned out fit and well as usual and he sauntered around in a sheep like state. I was on a Channel Four programme a few years ago and was asked what I was looking for when inspecting horses before a race. Not much has changed in the intervening years. I said at the time that I was looking for a horse about 16 hands high, well made and an athlete rather than a weight lifter. Frankel perfectly fits the bill on that score. Following Bullet Train around he is not as big as that one but loses nothing from being too big. If they are too big they tend to lose coordination and the pivot of propulsion tends to shift away from the fulcrum and the maximisation point of exertion. Hopefully he has done all the growing he has to do. The rest of the field were in fine nick with the exception of Dick Turpin who was sweating and on his toes.

Prior to the Champion Stakes the sweat was dripping out of Nathaniel relentlessly and his running here may have been below par as a consequence. Setting a forceful gallop over a trip short of his best did not help.

So You Think is a bruiser of a war horse and hardly typical of the colts Coolmore pursue with a stallion career in mind. These big old lumps rarely do well at stud as they so rarely match the best of the dam's facets and I will be surprised if he succeeds when his racing career is over. Nevertheless he is a class performer if just lacking that crucial bit of toe. I laid Dubai Prince for a place as he has failed to develop at all since last year.

Paddock Notes Newmarket Dewhurst Meeting 8 October 2012

Strong Suit was in superb nick for The Challenge Stakes and won with a show of class. He is sure to run well at The Breeders Cup. The fillies Chachamaidee and Elshabakiya have thrived.

Reply and Crusade from the Aiden O’Brien yard were the picks for the Middle Park and were allowed to go off at generous odds. Bapak Chinta lacks size and Caspar Netscher was starting to show the affects of a busy season.

For The Dewhurst, Most Improved did not have the wraps taken off till late but was impressive when they finally did. In so many ways his career path follows that of Delegator. With two maiden runs behind them they both ran in the Dewhurst and were both paddock picks acquitting themselves well but just lacking Group race experience. Available at 33/1 he is good value for the 2,000 Guineas next spring. Delegator thrived before The Craven and his work on the Manton Gallops precipitated a huge Ante Post plunge. I was sitting very pretty indeed until a certain Sea The Stars waltzed into the Parade Ring on Guineas Day and sent me scurrying to have a saver.

Camelot sluiced up in the Racing Post and there was a nationwide punt on him on the Tuesday prior to Doncaster. An independent bookmaker I know reported a woman coming into his shop on the Tuesday when all the O’Brien horses were still engaged, and asking for £4k on Camelot.

These days Aiden O'Brien does not like to rush his colts for the 2,000 Guineas and Camelot is far more likely to go to The Curragh for the Irish version. I think the reason for this goes back to George Washington, Footstepsinthesand and to a lesser extent Hawk Wing. When I was asked what GW looked like before his Guineas at Newmarket I said that he appeared to have been rushed to get to Newmarket. While he was fit, he was not thriving and blooming like you would want to see one having his first run of the new campaign. GW won impressively but fell apart thereafter and was beaten at the Curragh. It took till September to get him back to his peak. Footstepsinthesand never ran again after winning and Hawk Wing failed to reach the lofty ambitions held for him at Cashel. The performance at HQ and subsequent demise of St Nicholas Abbey's three year old career rather enhances the theory.

Henrythenavigator did win but was noticeably backward for his bow and won in spite of his condition and he confirmed running with New Approach at The Curragh.

As a consequence I do not believe Coolmore will rip the guts out of Camelot to get him to HQ for the first Classic. If they want to prove his speed at the mile they can always drop him back for the Sussex Stakes later in the Summer just as they did with Rip Van Winkle.

Most Improved does not have much else to fear at this point of proceedings. I believe he will take care of the Dewhurst mob and the Middle Park was a condensed affair. That only leaves the French colt Dabirsim and he will probably stay home, assuming he trains on.

Wading was the clear choice for the Rockfel and the Montjeu filly has a promising middle distance career ahead of her.

The Autumn Stakes has been won by the likes of Nayef and Nashwan in the past as well as Masked Marvel running last year. Astrology was heavily backed but failed to win. The well made Galileo colt is worth another chance to atone.

Guineas Paddock Notes

Guineas Paddock Notes

My blog put Carlton House up as a Classic contender and his work has been outstanding including over the weekend where he had Ryan Moore praying the Derby was this week. He is now down to 6/1 for Epsom and will take a deal of beating in the Dante. Dermot Weld’s profile in the Racing Post on Sunday led with Notable Graduate and he confirmed the Irish Derby/St Leger route.

Frankel had racing fans searching for new superlatives when producing a unique display of speed to take the Guineas. It was truly awesome.

However the news that Frankel will miss the Derby is devastating. I cannot believe that connections would miss the chance to show the world what he can truly achieve. Given the way he murdered the Guineas field for toe it was on prima facie evidence all too obvious that he might be kept to shorter trips. However it would be folly to think that this is now the only style of running that Frankel can perform. It needs to borne in mind that his runs in the Royal Lodge, the Dewhurst and the Greenham were to some extent held up off the pace. I had believed connections would definitely run him in the Derby and though he would have obviously raced prominently, for all the reasons I gave in my blog on him before Christmas I believe he would stay and win. Even if a stalking horse was put in the field that horse would not have had the speed to get to the front with Frankel around. Epsom suits front runners and At First Sight gave a career best in the race last year. Many others spring to mind. Going back over the years having speed to burn never stopped horses like Sir Ivor, Nijinsky, Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard getting 12 furlongs.

Sending him to the St James Palace will prove nothing. Putting him back in trip will also add nothing to our knowledge of the horse. Sprinters are mainly risen handicappers or failed classic aspirants. Frankel’s sectionals on Saturday were quicker than for Tangerine Trees in the Palace House.

However to win the Derby would have cemented Frankel’s status as eternally legendary. Possibly greater than Secretariat, Ribot, Nijinsky and any other of the greats you care to mention.

I really cannot remember when I was so gutted. After all the years of following the game I am absolutely distraught. Totally crestfallen.

Of the others in the Guineas field Casamento looked to have done really well and can give some good performances this term over middle distances and Pathfork appeared to have strengthened. Roderick O’Connor has not grown over the Winter. Happy Today and Loving Spirit are going the right way and can improve.

Native Ruler has always been a favourite of mine and was on my short list for the Derby two years ago. He was the most backward in condition before the Jockey Club Stakes but retains all his class. He could have a mighty season. Campanologist was on good terms and can win a few pots abroad. Indian Days had come on since Newbury but had to concede the penalty.

Seal Rock will improve a deal for his win in the 6f handicap and can be aimed at the big prize money sprint handicaps. In the Newmarket Stakes Cai Shen is thriving but got stopped at a crucial stage and could not get the required momentum into the dip. I will back him to reverse the form with the winner should they meet again.

Brian Meehan’s team have yet to hit form and Zain Shamardal is the one to take from the 8f handicap. Group One entries may yet be fulfilled.

There was nothing outstanding in the 1,000 Guineas field. Hooray has not grown in the interim and went too fast. Those following got swallowed up by those racing from off the pace. Take out the pacemaker and the result could have been different. Havant is a strong sort and might be the best Oaks candidate from the Sunday runners.

I am not sure if Robert Cowell has got to the bottom of Lui Rei yet and he can figure this season.

At Ascot on the Wednesday Magic City was the pick for the 2yo race and can improve for the experience.

Flood Plain is the one to take from the Fillies Mile. She is much better than the bare form suggests. The favourite Hezmah was short to post and may appreciate better ground.

Brian Meehan’s City Leader and Aim To Prosper will do better when the stable hits form.

Even with a penalty Libranno was disappointing and is surely better than this.

Craven and Greenham Paddock Notes

Due to a bereavement I have not been able to tip anything recently but will be increasing my attention from now on.

My earlier blogs re Frankel Notable Graduate and Carlton House still stand and have been enhanced this week.

Frankel has trained on and is a top class individual. He won well. Docile in the paddock he strode away nicely. My blog in December put him up as a Derby horse and I thought the Greenham was more of a good Derby trial for him than the Guineas.  The second Excelebration has done well physically.

Notable Graduate won nicely last Thursday and Dermot Weld was very effusive afterwards. He will point him at the Derrinstown Derby trial before the Irish Derby. Carlton House worked really well on Saturday and remains on course for Epsom.

I backed Cape Dollar in the Fred Darling. Although still to come in her coat she disappointed but I remember both Crimplene and Lahan getting beat here before both won their respective 1,000 Guineas. Cassis was below par before taking the Musidora. Cape Dollar could run into a place in the 1,000 Guineas in a fortnight.

Beaten favourites Verdant, Suhaili and Kirthill all needed the run and will strip fitter.

World Domination was the pick for his maiden and is clearly Group class. It will be interesting to see how he steps up for the run. I will take a firmer view next time.

Lajooj like all the Al Zarooni’s this week was incredibly fit and is one to oppose next time.

Dubawi Sound is one of the best sons of Dubawi I have seen and there was no fluke about this. He could go to Royal Ascot. Quadrant ran well and will improve. The Stoute horses in the maidens were unfit.

No fireworks at the Craven but plenty of types with potential and scope for improvement. Utley was beat by the weight in the Free Handicap and can do well. Pausanias was the least fit and will progress.

Maqaasid was fit and well and beaten by the 3lb penalty. She will almost certainly have a bash at the 1,000 first. Sing Softly will do better over a mile.

Specific Gravity like a few of Cecil’s was not at his peak and is the one to follow from the race. Midsumer Sun is a quality medium sized sort who will blossom as a consequence of the experience.

Air Traffic was the one to take from the Wood Ditton. Questioning could not resist the super form of the Hannon duo. Native Khan carried stable confidence and got warm and may have blown up. This good actioned colt could place in a fortnight’s time. Polytechnician allowed the winner first run and should do better over a longer trip.

Gary Wiltshire's Apple Pie

Seeing Gary Wiltshire looking big and well on the dogs from Wimbledon on Sky TV recently, reminded me of a time at Newbury Races.

Now Gary loves a bet whether as a bookie or as a punter and I dare say his love of the action may at times have bordered on the obsessive. Most of us punters and racing enthusiasts must have at some stage wondered whether our involvement was becoming too much and perhaps jeopardising our outlook on life.

The other night it was pretty obvious that if there is one thing in life that can possibly compare with his love of racing – whether it be dogs or horses – it is his love of food. There was once a debate in the Ring as to who was the greatest gastronome - Gary or Johnny Lights. The debate swayed either way but one thing was certain - it was strictly a two runner book with the rags 100/1 and getting bigger.

Gary was making a book at Newbury a few years ago on the back line and before he joined the Tote. I was fortunate enough to back a winner with him. Giving him time to pay out his punters, I waited for a few minutes to allow him and his staff to organise the bag and count out my winnings. With all the tickets paid out and only a couple of other bookie’s accounts to settle Gary got off the stand and easing back a couple of yards to absolve himself from the action, proceeded to pull out a Blackberry and Apple pie from his pocket and carefully extricate it from the wrapping. Meanwhile as the Clerk counted my readies it became increasingly obvious that Gary did not want to be disturbed. At which point one of his staff had to ask him about a payment from another bookie. Gary gave him such a look of disdain that anyone noticing would have quickly removed themselves from the vicinity for fear of their life. The Floorman winced and decided to sort it himself – rightly or wrongly.

It was becoming clear that if Gary could have stepped into an alternate universe so as to allow him to concentrate solely on enjoying his pie he would have willingly done so. As it was he had to reside in the real world while willing to die anybody who had the temerity to disturb his peace.

I could not stand it any more and had to give Gary the wind up.

‘Ere Gary’ says I. Gary gave me the last in his repertoire of looks that kill while at the same time struggling to tear himself away from the solitude of the sacred relationship he was having with his delicacy.

‘What’ he curtly growled.

‘I bet you would love a bit of custard on that pie. You know – the nice one that Marks and Spencer do’. Gary’s eyes went up into his head faster than a Harrier Jump Jet and I thought he was going to feint at the sheer thought of total ecstasy which would have happened if I could have poured the exquisite sauce on his cherished fruit pie.

I don't know if Gary had a list of horses to follow from the meeting but I can bet odds on what was on his shopping list the next time he visited ‘Marksies.’