Only one bet proofed today - Starfield (adv 9/2 WH PP Tote) touched Bf7 - bolts up @ 7/4 @ Wolverhampton. I will wait all day for a good thing!!!

Joshua Tree "has thrived and will frank the form" (July Blog) wins the Woodbine International @ 6/1.
Siyouma - the paddock pick for the Sun Chariot wins the EP Taylor @ 3/1.

The Tote have unbelievably raised the Deductions from the Win Pools by 3% to 16.5%. In my Blog of 28th February 2011 I outlined how all of Racing's problems could be solved if the Tote reduced its deductions for Internet Betting to 5%. As I said at the time it would be a tragedy for Racing if Andy Stewart and his Consortium did not get the concession. This week's hike rather confirms my view at that time.

If Camelot wasn't fully fit at Town Moor he should be spot on tomorrow and rates the bet. WH currently 4/1.
Martin Lane continues to impress as a top pilot and he was excellent on the wayward Pinarius @8/1 last night.
Captain Cat was a blog in the Spring. He came there cruising yesterday only to blow up close home. Losses are only lent. Titus Mills impressed me at Kempton in May but has had his problems. He ran a huge race yesterday and is only off 90.

Some nice animals at HQ over the weekend. Light up My Life was probably just the pick for the Oh So Sharp. Queally gave Stipulate another duff ride coming far too soon again. Earlier in the season Henry Cecil said this horse had lots of speed and needed to be ridden as such. Certify floated and is the best juvenile mover this term. It was a weak heat. Seek Again is probably the nicest Speightstown I have seen. He will come on 10lb for the run and is Group Class. Dare To Achieve and Vital Evidence are good sorts and should be noted. Harris Tweed looked his bet yet and won at the weights. The Godolphin pair - Retrieve and Songcraft were on good terms. Sea of Heartbreak finally ran at 12f but against colts. She went far too soon and got burnt off. Duff placing and a duff ride.

On the Saturday Steeler upheld the juvenile form in the Royal Lodge. Artigiano has done really well. I said to someone at Newbury that Rhosdu Queen reminded me of Superstar Leo who I wrote an essay on for Sports Adviser. I backed her at York and she was the pick again here. She looks a sprinter and would be no good for the 1,000 Guineas. Siyouma, Elusive Kate and Laugh Out Loud were the paddock order for the Sun Chariot and they finished accordingly. Beauty Parlour looked a mess and was poor in her coat as well as carrying a few lbs on her belly. Lord knows where the money came from to make her fav. Mukhadram was in superb nick for the Cambridgeshire but the 11lb rise for finishing third in the Group3 Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot, killed any chance of winning this. Bronze Angel went up only 4lb for a third in the Britannia Hcap. 6lb for 23/4 lengths was the difference.

Toronado is the only juvenile I have highlighted in my Blog this term and he heads the list for the Royal Lodge Stakes to be run at Newmarket on Saturday. After my Newbury note he was available at 50/1 for the 2,000 Guineas and still @ 33/1 after his Ascot win. All the form lines show him to be the best 2yo colt so far and I expect him to win on Saturday. Once again followers of my Blog are quids in!! I said 2 June no more blogs but then up pops a cracker like Toronado so what can you do? After all I am 'The Champion Spotter'. Its my registered Trade Mark.

Camelot was not fully fit.

As a long time paddock wallah I suppose I have as much right to venture an opinion on Camelot and his defeat in the St Leger given that this was the first horse to venture a foray at the Triple Crown since the peerless Nijinsky in 1970.

As it was Nijinsky himself who first fired my interest in Horse Racing it was poignant that Camelot should be the one to try and follow up who to this day, is the best horse I have ever seen and the bench mark by which I judge all other racehorses.

Camelot only had two runs last term and it was at the Guineas Meeting that I first clapped eyes on the son of Montjeu. With all the hype, and following on from St Nicholas Abbey whose three year old career had fallen apart at the Guineas, it was to be expected perhaps that this might be another horse of straw. But as soon as he appeared it was obvious that this was the real deal and I said as much in my Blog on the Guineas Meeting stating "Camelot is all class and won in spite of the conditions. He is difficult to fault on any point and is a superb specimen". High praise indeed. He followed by winning the Derby with ease.

However when I first saw Camelot in the pre parade at Doncaster today my first impression was that the horse was gross, was carrying too much condition and lacking definition on his stomach muscles. Aiden said himself that he feared he may have left too much (condition) on him. Together with a lay off of some 77 days it remains for me to conclude that the best chance of taking the Triple Crown in 42 years has been left on the Training Grounds.

Horses can put on condition during an aggressive campaign, At Goodwood before the Sussex Stakes one time, the Bookmaker Simon Roberts, son of Dudley Roberts, asked me if Giants Causeway had lost condition and run up light. I confirmed quite the opposite. GC had put weight and condition on and looked 'big and well'. I reported this to Sportsadviser who then relayed it on the Internet. Some time after, Aiden OBrien confirmed that the horse had put on some 40 kilos in weight.

The difference with Giants Causeway was that he did not not have a break and was pursuing a full campaign thus ensuring race fitness.

The gallop with Fame and Glory shown on ATR looked more window dressing than searching gallop and the inference is that Aiden has been too lenient in his preparation of Camelot and is the one to carry the blame for the horses' failure to carve his name in the Turf's Roll of Honour.

Toronado Blog 4th July.

Toronado continues his career path as I first alerted in my blog of 4th July. His win today stands inspection and he now has the option of the Royal Lodge, The Racing Post Trophy or an entry in France to take advantage of the Breeders Premium on account of his French breeding. The 33/1 for the Guineas will be long gone now!

AYE AYE!!! Lovely Pass W 16/1. Another one for the Old Firm. Go check My Blog for July.

Elhaame 2nd 50/1 beaten a nose - DAMN!!!!

In my July Blog I put up Elhaame as a maiden to follow.

Beaten second time up @ Kempton on 7th August this is what Luca Cumani said in the Weekender 22 Aug.

"He has finished down the field in two maidens, but I still like him. I was encouraged by his first run at Newmarket in a decent maiden at the July Meeting. I hoped he would go much closer next time at Kempton but Kieren said he hated the new surface and never got hot hold of it . That was frustrating as he was in good form but we will return to turf for his next run when I expect to see him put up a much better show and hopefully justify some of his smart entries ( Champagne Stakes and Royal Lodge Stakes).

He gets beat a nose at Haydock next time up @a bfsp of 50/1.

NewmarketJuly Meeting

Soft and Heavy ground played havoc with the form. Course and going experience were strong assets.

Thursday:

Shantaram was mentioned as a contender in April and he enhanced his profile with a win in the Bahrain Trophy. Though he won well enough I still believe he is better on a Flat track which he will get at York and Doncaster. Rewarded looked to have done particularly well.

In the July Stakes Gale Force Ten should have done better.

Fiorente was mentioned as having done well at the Guineas and he won in style to justify support. Red Cadeaux was in great nick but had to concede 3lbs and drifted to the far rail. Presumably he heads for the Melbourne Cup. Joshua Tree has thrived and will frank the form.

The juvenile filly Certify moved best to post and is a good sort. Shuruq, Lady Vermeer, Hasanan, and the Hannon pair Mandeville and Three Choirs will follow up.

Mukhadram was noted for the Wood Ditton and he continues to impress but the stable are under a cloud. He will do better. Eastern Sun might be picking up and I am starting to like him for the first time. A handicap might be an option. Mister Music has done well since the Fielden.

Friday:

Illaunglass was on her own before the first and has done well since last year. Reported to be a madam at home she might fire if in the mood and could pop up at a price in something like the Oak Tree on the Friday at Goodwood.

Fulbright was in supreme nick. Piri Wango is progressive and will return on a favoured surface, possibly Ascot or Doncaster.

The Cherry Hinton was a modest heat - Premier Steps and Lovely Pass were preferred. In contrast the Falmouth was a cracking contest. The winner Giofra is built like a stallion and moved best to post along with Alanza. Nearly everything else was in prime condition. Maybe looked good but ran poorly.

Plenty of nice types in the 7f maiden for 2yos. Ghurair, Contributor, Dundonell, Elhaame, Evangeliste, Grilletto, Improvisation and Khudoua all have futures. Having had a run Afonso de Souza should have done better. A strong stocky sort he moved well enough to post.

Leo Luna was well backed for the 3yo maiden despite having had problems. If he stays sound he should progress.

With the lousy weather and forecast I drew stumps. Pity as I would have seen Mayson confirm his Guineas Blog inclusion @30/1 on the same turf in the July Cup.

Toronado won on his juvenile debut for Richard Hannon and is a really nice sort who will be contesting Group races later on. By High Chapparal he will no doubt end in up in a race like the Royal Lodge. There was support for his stable companion Hands Of Time. While he was very fit he almost certainly did not act on the soft ground. He should win a race. There was a strong wind behind which flattered the times.

Final Paddock Notes

This is the last Paddock Blog I will do. I hope it has have been of interest and some help to you. Perhaps it has highlighted that the Paddock can be used as much for future winners as for winners on the day.

York Thurs 17^th May 2012

Sea of Heartbreak had a good year in 2011 and looks to have progressed again. She will be suited by a step back up to 12 furlongs. I'm a Dreamer continues to do well.

Ektihaam held the call for the Dante and he gave his best showing to date to finish second. Bonfire has a reputation at home for bad behaviour and drifted on course as a result. He was just bested on looks being a lighter made sort but still athletic and nicely put together. Fencing was hard trained and this was his Derby but seemed to lack stamina. He was up there in terms of presence and should be noted when reverting in distance. Dream Tune had come on since Newbury and will do better dropped in grade.

I retired to the bar.

Newbury Friday 18^th May 2012

The warnings I sounded for Mysterial at HQ were again in abeyance and he was poor to post. I laid him in turn.

Shirocco Star was well touted and she had done well since last autumn. Again inclined to sweat up and a bit edgy, she ran a fine trial for Epsom. Starscope had run up a bit light since the Guineas and was in a cow of a mood. Planting herself at the furlong pole and mareish at the start she could do with a break to freshen up her attitude. The Queen's Momentary was a match on looks and conformation for Starscope and there was no fluke about this. She is a live contender for the Ribblesdale being by Nayef out of Fleeting Memory.

Lady Phil did well to win the juvenile conditions event giving 6lb to the favourite. She has a pair of quarters on her.

Commitment kicked out and caught the rail in the paddock but was allowed to run despite appearing lame when trotting up and down. He has made up into a fair middle distance 3yo and should progress in handicaps. Waterclock is progressive but needed the run.

I was distraught to see Burwaaz beaten having marked him after Kempton as a potential top sprinter. Ed Dunlop mentioned in the Weekender that he had injured his back coming out of the stalls and I will be interested in him next time, hopefully at a big price – perhaps at Ascot.

Swiss Spirit was produced in A1 condition. I was thinking this was a nearly horse but David Elsworth loves to win at Newbury and although he scrambled home he might go on again from here. Inetrobil was second in the Albany Stakes last year and has done well from her juvenile days.

Newbury Saturday 18^th May 2012

Bishop Roko is a gelding and still to fully get his summer coat. He bolted up and can go straight into handicaps and could thrive again. Viewpoint did not get home and will be one for handicaps. Sun Central is a good sort who will improve for the run and ran green.

Hawaafez is such a robust barrel of a horse that I found it hard to remind myself that she is a filly. She has not stopped improving. Ibicenco was noticeably backward and had to be laid despite being favourite.

Palace Moon and Pabusar were best for the sprint and the second being only a 4yo should do best.

The London Gold Cup is always a strong heat and the pick – Expense Claim won well.

Border Legend was a disappointment and still some way from full fitness he ran green and hung left. A watching brief for the time being.

Cathedral is a good sort and was not wound up. Keep tabs. Bute Hall is a good sort and easily the most backward in the race must improve a deal.

One horse I forgot to mention from the Craven Stakes was Beaufort Twelve. I was about to blow my trumpet after his Goodwood win but was aghast to see I had forgotten to write him up. He was the most backward at HQ having had cracked heels like many horses this spring. He will improve again. Apologies for the omission.

Finally the mighty Frankel.

Having missed fast work for a couple of weeks due his overreach injury I would have been happy for him to win by a comfortable couple of lengths but he gave a career best and fairly blew away his opponents. I mentioned in my October blog that hopefully he had done all the growing he was going to do and thankfully that is the case. After the race the usual clichés were invariably trotted out i.e. “he has not grown but he has strengthened” or “he has strengthened in all the right places.” I bet if the saddle numbers with Bullet Train had been swapped that very few would have known the difference. Having said that he has to my eye, grown stronger in key muscle sets but I am not going to tell you what those are - in a free blog.

That sets the scene for some scintillating performances this summer, hopefully over a longer trip. Until he proves himself over 10 and perhaps 12 furlongs Frankel can only be said to be the best miler in the world – not the best horse in the world.

Dubawi Gold and Excelebration were in fine nick and gave their runnings. Windsor Palace is not finished with yet and was in superb shape. He will appreciate a return to 10 furlongs.

Pre Derby Synopsis

Camelot looks a class act on looks and should take the Derby tomorrow but at this stage he is not that far ahead of his opponents on the figures to warrant such a short price. He beat a modest field for the Racing Post and did not put a lot of distance between him and the placed runners. He looked plenty fit enough before the 2,000 Guineas and still only won by a head with several of the contenders running below par on the worst ground for the Guineas in a generation. His breeding should get him the trip.

One colt in the field who knocked me over last year was Astrology. Entered in the Autumn Stakes run at HQ for the first time having been transferred from Ascot, he was Group One material beforehand but finished only third despite heavy support in the markets. I was keen to see how he came out of it this year and was delighted to see him win the Dee Stakes in facile fashion. There was not enough opposition to warrant going overboard but he went clear to confirm that he has indeed trained on. He could well be the pick tomorrow in the prelims and at 10/1 he is massive value. His breeding is superb being by Galileo out of the Group One Prix St Alary winner – Ask For The Moon. He can always be backed Each way or Win only and save with a csf on Camelot. He could not have a better pilot than Ryan Moore and I am looking forward with relish to a great contest.

I was at York to see Bonfire. Reports of his lousy attitude at home swept the Knavesmire and that was the reason for the drift in the betting. On looks he is not a big sort but well put together and very athletic. The more you look at him the more he grows on you. Main Sequence won well at Lingfield to beat the progressive Shantaram and they pulled clear. He could be in the mix but does not appeal as a winner.

Newmarket Guineas Meeting Paddock Notes

The wet weather and heavy ground played havoc with the results and the form should not be taken literally. The colder weather meant many trainers used full string blankets which made paddock study a nightmare. The thicker half blanket is a better option as it keeps the vital organs warmer.

How Michael Prosser could call the going 'Good To Soft' is a joke. It was Heavy – full stop and the times confirm this. Without a tail wind they would have been even slower.

Saturday:

Dick Doughtywylie trained by John Gosden, continues to make excellent progress and there is a good handicap in this one, possibly at the Royal Ascot meeting. The same trainer's Masked Marvel continues to thrive and should be tabbed next time up. Fiorente and the winner Al Kazeem have done well.

The 2,000 Guineas winner Camelot is all class and won in spite of the conditions. He is difficult to fault on any point and is a superb specimen. Hopefully he will continue to go the right way. He was turned out looking fit and well and will now contest the Derby. I see no reason why he should not continue to give a good account for the rest of the year.

Abtaal is an imposing sort and turned out in fine condition once the wraps came off. He should have finished near to the French trained second. On looks he should do well on the French courses. Caspar Netscher has developed since the Greenham and will do well dropping back in trip. Bronterre looked at least as well as he had before the Greenham but disappointed. It might be the ground or his temperament. A pair of blinkers might help. Power has done well but suffered cracked heels in his prep. Elsewhere there were no real negatives.

Mayson looked a big morning price of 5/1 bearing in mind his Abernant win but went to post early.

Red Quartet is at the right end of the handicap and confirmed his Newbury promise.

Stencive looks a progressive sort and is one to note. The going did not help.

Archbishop was on great terms and can have a good season.

Sunday:

Ithoughtitwasover impressed and I have a feeling about this one. Royal Ascot must surely be on the agenda. Al Zarooni's pair – Anatolian and Sandusky should make their mark after this.

Izzi Top has made good progress since last term and Captivator was the one for the forecast. They should both go one from this. Timepiece has a wall eye – always the sign of a screw and temperament might be a negative factor this term.

What can you say about the Guineas? Homecoming Queen won her trial in good fashion and is a three parts sister to Dylan Thomas. It would not have surprised me had she framed but to win by 9 lengths beggars belief. Apart from Nayarra she was probably the smallest filly in the race.

Moonstone Magic had done really well since Newbury and was a true disappointment. She is now a fine filly and hopefully she will fufill her potential. I liked Diala and Mashoora but the Godolphin pair failed to shine. Maybe has not grown much but is a real quality sort. My Nell Gwyn fancy – the very likeable Starscope tried this time and finished second.

There was money for the 2yo Mysterial and he is a good sort but showed a woeful action to post and in the race. I would like to see him move to post on better ground.

Kailani is a ringer for her dam – the Oaks winner Kazzia and she has clearly inherited all of her ability. She won't be my selection for the race but she heads to the the Epsom Oaks with a wet sail.

Some Spring Paddock Notes

The forecast for the week was rain but racegoers were pretty lucky and apart from the odd shower it remained dry. The Craven was a bit windy and many of the horses had light blankets which made paddock viewing difficult. The notes are therefore not as detailed and extensive as I would have liked.

Newmarket Wed 18^th April 2012

In the Alex Scott Maiden many had blankets removed late. The winner Cogito was the pick.

Many of Charles Hills entries during the week needed the run and Balty Boys was surprisingly unfit given the prize money on offer. He has trained on. Luca Cumani's Out Do was the most backward of the field and has plenty of potential. He can go the handicap route and is one to follow.

I bet Bannock who looked in tremendous nick but he could not quite concede the winner 10lbs. Having proved he gets 7f his options are widened.

I followed that up with a punt on Starscope in the Nell Gwyn. The only horse in the prelims she was a blatant not off and would have won had Buick put her in the race. She will do better over a longer trip.

Stipulate has done really well and took the Fielden despite being the most backward. He should thrive. Producer was noted for the Horris Hill last October and he has done well and in need of the run.

Shantaram was well touted for the 10f maiden and was considered by some as the Banker of the week. Given a woeful ride by Buick and ceding a 3L start he looks a contender and will be better on a flat track. Model Pupil was noticeably backward and will improve a deal. His breeding indicates a step up in trip.

Newmarket Thurs 19^th April 2012.

Tassel was made a hot favourite for the 2yo fillies maiden. Although very fit she is only compact.

The Wood Ditton was probably better than average. I did not get a proper look at the winner but the next 6 home should all win and I would add Tenure to the mix.

In The Tattersalls Million, Bin Suroor's Handsome Man came into the race with a mark of just 80. Beaten 32 lengths won't add to that and he can be noted in a handicap.

Trumpet Major scooted home in the Craven to earn a decent figure. A handy sort he looked very fit but did not satisfy every purist and one senior judge actually laid him for a place.

I have seen Twice Over look a lot better and he was worth opposing.

Newbury Friday 20^th April 2012.

The ground was very heavy and the going stick reading of 4.6 was one of the lowest I can remember. The form should be treated with a large degree of caution.

The 2yo event was inconclusive and a few will sharpen up for the run. Quite often it is better to form an opinion on the second run once the puppy fat has come off and you can see what is left underneath.

The Dubai Duty Free handicap for 3yo's over 7f is usually a good contest with winners emerging. The front two in the market were like chalk and cheese. The winner Gregorian is a lengthy cadillac of a colt who looked particularly fit and well while the hot favourite Aljamaaheer is a stocky close coupled power block of a colt who also was really fit and well. Both are nice. The first couple of furlongs were run at a snail's pace and while the winner won on merit, the overall form is highly suspect. Usain Colt and Red Quartet were others to take the eye.

The Bridget Maiden was won by a wide margin winner but my choice Manaar did not go a yard.

The Whitley Stud Maiden produced the Oaks winner Dancing Rain last year and the second division looked the stronger. Inchina was mentioned last fall in my blog and having done well she went of the 2/1 favourite. She seemed to be going clear but then got stuck in the mud. She remains one to follow along with the Cumani trained Require.

I did not have Ektihaam much behind Most Improved when I saw him before the Dewhurst. Drifting from 3/1 to 10/1 that day something was clearly not right and he never figured in the race. He was turned out looking fit and well and confirmed paddock synopsis with a decent win over Wrotham Heath. The latter was in fine nick but ran a bit free early on which did not help in the ground.

Saturday 21^st April 2012

Frankel's half brother - Noble Mission looked on good terms and won well. Captain Cat, Dream Tune, Ibtihaj and Seventh Sign should come on for the run.

Arctic Cosmos looks a Group One contender this term but stopped to nothing in the race. Hopefully nothing was amiss.

All the paddock purists were on Moonstone Magic to a man and she confirmed confidence in style in the Fred Darling. Despite stable misgivings about the going the Lowther winner Best Terms was allowed to run. She may not have grown much during the Winter but has done really well and she should go on from here.

Bronterre carried Hannon confidence for the Greenham but failed to pick up. I thought he looked long backed and weak before the Dewhurst but he has strengthened a deal and will have a fine summer.

Top Offer was allowed to parade before the Greenham. I did not see him last term but he is a fine sort. He seemed tight enough on his quarters but could still lose a few pounds around the belly. There will be few better looking horses before the 2,000.

Fury walked short in his off rear and tends to put that hind out a bit. Maybe something was hurting last season to cause his fall off in form. It did not seem to hinder him in the Spring Cup.

Henry Cecil's Touch Gold was the preferred for the Bathwick Maiden and must surely get a decent handicap mark. Rule Book was noticeably backward and did well to finish fifth.

Forest Row was another inflicted with the cursed full blanket but I was able to view when without and he has done really well since last year and should have a successful campaign. I was tipped up Border Legend in the same race but he was in need of the run. A classy sort with a deal of scope he looks Ascot material. The second Lucanin was very green indeed before and during the heat. He will come on for the experience.

To Hedge Or Not To Hedge?

Readers of my website and blog will know I have been consistently with Most Improved and Discourse through the Winter. With MI now down to around 9/2 on Betfair, those who have the 40 and 33s and wish to hedge should do so now. A victory in the Craven has already been factored into the price.

It is a fact that the big bookmakers are known to have their card marked by certain stables – Ladbrokes are best for Coolmore for example. For Godolphin, Coral have always been well informed and it is interesting that they are now ducking Discourse and are lowest @ 6/1. It is still 11bf for those who have yet to take a single.

Beaten Up

One horse I forgot to mention in my blog of 1^st November was Beaten Up. I backed  Al Kazeem at around 7/2 in the morning for the St Simon Stakes as I did not fancy Mohedian Lady but had to change my position after taking a look at Beaten Up. I thought he had a lot to make up having only won an 85 Rated Stakes at Doncaster but I was knocked out when he finally came into the paddock.  A fine rangy sort although he is a gelding he can make his mark in top company. He has already been pitched in at the deep end to contest the Dubai Classic on Saturday. He will probably be best over a longer trip and there is no guarantee of any pace but I am praying for a bold show.